Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Shock Operation" rating for the cotton textile industry [3] Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, after the September 3rd Victory Day parade in China, the stock market dropped. The August PMI manufacturing index rebounded but remained below 50%. Enterprise profits turned positive. Next week, the CF2601 contract is expected to oscillate or start a rebound test in the range of [13920 - 14255]. In the medium - term, new cotton will be on the market after September 20th. The expected purchase price of ginned cotton mills is 6 - 6.3 yuan/ton. Pre - sales of new cotton have increased significantly. With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October", there is a possibility of price support or rebound, but high inventories of grey cloth and yarn limit the rebound height. In the long - term, after new cotton is on the market, prices may first rise and then fall, and next year the market is expected to be shock - strong due to the expected interest rate cuts [6] - For cotton yarn, this week, Zhengzhou cotton prices adjusted, and the cotton yarn market also followed. The trading volume of pure cotton yarn is average, and low - count yarns perform better. Inland spinning enterprises are still in cash - flow losses and lack confidence in the future. With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October", prices are expected to strengthen [8] Summaries by Directory 01. Weekly Viewpoint - Cotton - Short - term: After the parade, the stock market fell. The PMI index rebounded but was below 50%. Next week, expect oscillations or a rebound test in the [13920 - 14255] range for CF2601 [6] - Medium - term: New cotton will be on the market after September 20th. Pre - sales have increased. The "Golden September and Silver October" may support prices, but high inventories limit the rebound [6] - Long - term: New cotton prices may first rise and then fall. Next year, the market may be shock - strong due to expected interest rate cuts [6] 02. Weekly Viewpoint - Cotton Yarn - This week, Zhengzhou cotton prices adjusted, and the cotton yarn market followed. Low - count yarns perform better. Inland spinning enterprises are in losses. With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October", prices may strengthen [8] 03. Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton is still weak. Macro - risk aversion is strong. Cotton merchants' inventories are low, and some old cotton remains unsold. Spinning enterprises purchase raw materials on a need - basis. New cotton production is expected to increase slightly, bringing long - term pressure. The trading volume of pure cotton yarn is average, and low - count yarns perform better. Inland spinning enterprises are in cash - flow losses [12] 04. International Macro - US economic data shows that in September 2025, the ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, ADP employment decreased, exports increased, imports increased, and the trade deficit widened. Eurozone data shows that the unemployment rate decreased, CPI increased, and PPI increased [13] 05. Domestic Macro - Upcoming domestic economic data to be released includes foreign exchange reserves, CPI, PPI, M2 money supply, social financing scale, and new RMB loans [15] 06. Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - According to the USDA's August report, in the 2025/26 season, global cotton production, consumption, and trade volume decreased month - on - month, and the ending inventory decreased. In the 2024/25 season, production decreased, consumption increased, exports decreased, and the ending inventory decreased again [17] 07. Domestic Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In the 2024/25 season, the total supply decreased due to a decrease in imports. The total demand increased due to an increase in cotton consumption. The ending inventory decreased by 120,000 tons. In the 2025/26 season, the total supply decreased slightly, the total demand remained stable, and the ending inventory decreased by 100,000 tons [22] 08. US Cotton Exports - As of August 14, 2025, the US had cumulatively signed 755,000 tons of cotton exports for the 2025/26 season, with a signing rate of 28.88% and a shipment rate of 8.49%. China had signed 3,000 tons and shipped 181 tons [25] 09. Industrial and Commercial Inventories - At the end of July, the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.1898 million tons, a decrease of 22.62% from the previous month and 21.18% from the same period last year. As of August 15, the commercial inventory was 1.8202 million tons, a decrease of 16.88% from the end of July. Industrial inventories also changed accordingly [28] 10. Cotton and Cotton Yarn Imports - In July 2025, China's cotton imports were 50,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%. From January to July, cumulative imports were 520,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.2%. Cotton yarn imports in July were 110,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.4% [31] 11. Cotton Yarn Production and Sales - In August, the cotton yarn market improved, especially in the second half of the month. The profit of spinning enterprises improved, but the operating rate did not increase significantly. The estimated production of pure cotton yarn in August was 424,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.3% [35] 12. US Cotton Growth - As of August 31, the boll - setting rate of US cotton was 90%, 4 percentage points slower than last year and 3 points slower than the five - year average. The flocculation rate was 28%, 7 points slower than last year and 2 points slower than the average. The excellent - good rate was 51%, 7 points higher than last year and 8 points higher than the average [38] 13. US Cotton Weather - As of September 2, the drought index in the US cotton - growing areas increased, but most cotton had completed boll - setting and entered the flocculation stage, so the impact on growth was limited [42] 14. Xinjiang Cotton Growth - As of September 1, the average flocculation rate in Xinjiang was 27.7%, an increase of 12.4 percentage points. Some cotton fields have started spraying defoliants, and new cotton is expected to be on the market 10 - 15 days earlier than usual [44] 15. Textile Industry Inventory - In July, the inventory of the textile industry increased by 0.12% month - on - month and 0.49% year - on - year. The finished - product inventory of the textile industry decreased by 0.03% month - on - month and increased by 1.31% year - on - year. Textile and clothing inventories changed accordingly [45] 16. Domestic Demand - In July 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 3.878 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. The retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles were 96.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8% [50] 17. External Demand - In July 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 26.766 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.06%. From January to July, cumulative exports were 170.741 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 0.63% [53] 18. US Clothing Retail - In June 2025, the retail sales of US clothing and accessories were 26.342 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 3.88% and a month - on - month increase of 0.94% [56] 19. US Cotton Product Imports - In June 2025, US cotton product imports were 1.357 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.47% and a month - on - month increase of 5.32%. Textile and clothing imports also changed [60] 20. Warehouse Receipts - As of September 4, the number of warehouse receipts was 5,829, a decrease of 167 from the previous week [62] 21. Non - Commercial Positions - As of August 26, the net long positions of non - commercial futures and options in the ICE cotton futures market decreased by 2,829 to - 40,128. The net long positions of non - commercial futures alone decreased by 2,501 to - 37,606. The net long positions of commodity index funds decreased by 513 to 59,842 [66] 22. Textile Factory Load - As of September 5, the load index of pure cotton yarn mills was 64.5, unchanged from the previous week; the load of rayon yarn mills was 50, unchanged; the load of pure polyester yarn mills was 54.5, an increase of 0.1 from the previous week [70] 23. Weaving Factory Load - The load index of all - cotton grey cloth mills increased by 0.3 to 46.5, the load index of rayon cloth mills increased by 1.0 to 55.5, and the comprehensive load of short - fiber cloth mills increased by 0.2 to 49.3 [74] 24. Industry Chain Inventory - Textile enterprises' cotton inventory decreased by 0.7 days to 29.7 days, cotton yarn inventory decreased by 0.4 days to 28.1 days, and all - cotton grey cloth inventory decreased by 0.9 days to 33.5 days [78] 25. Industry Chain Profits - This week, Zhengzhou cotton prices oscillated after a rebound. The cotton yarn market improved slightly, but the price increase was limited. Inland spinning enterprises for C32S were still in losses of about 500 yuan/ton, while Xinjiang enterprises still had a small profit [83] 26. Basis - This week, the basis weakened significantly with the rebound of futures prices. The current inland basis is 1,033 yuan/ton, a decrease of 505 yuan/ton from the previous week. The new cotton pre - sale basis is 800 - 1000 yuan/ton [86] 27. Domestic and Foreign Cotton Price Spread - Currently, the domestic cotton market is stronger than the foreign market. After October, if China increases foreign cotton imports or conducts state reserves sales, the situation may change [89] 28. Inter - Month Spread - The 9 - 11 spread weakened to - 300 yuan/ton, approaching the target. The 11 - 1 spread first weakened to - 230 yuan/ton and then strengthened to - 125 yuan/ton. A strategy of shorting 11 and going long 1 is recommended [92]
长江期货棉纺产业周报：震荡运行-20250905
Changjiang Securities·2025-09-05 12:25