生猪周报：生猪周报节后情绪好转期价增仓上行-20250905

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the overall price of live pigs showed a rebound and upward trend. The rise in pig prices was mainly due to the tightening of supply at the beginning of the month and the early entry of secondary fattening. However, the supply - demand contradiction in the spot market in May was not obvious, especially the demand was still relatively weak. If secondary fattening faded and large - scale farms started to sell pigs, prices might still fall. - In the futures market, valuation repair and spot drive were the main contradictions in this week's futures trading. With the improvement of market sentiment and the concentrated entry of secondary fattening, the bulls increased their positions, and the futures price broke through the previous resistance level. The report believes that there is still room for the rise of live pig prices, but from a trading perspective, the impact of spot prices is still significant, and once secondary fattening fades, the futures price may be adjusted [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis & Trading Strategy 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - Spot market: The price of live pigs rebounded this week. The reasons were the slowdown of large - scale enterprise sales progress at the beginning of the month, the resistance of farmers to low prices, the reduction of large - weight pig sources, and the entry of secondary fattening. However, the supply - demand contradiction in May was not obvious, and if secondary fattening faded, prices might fall. - Futures market: The main contradiction in futures trading was valuation repair and spot drive. With the improvement of market sentiment, the bulls increased their positions, and the futures price rose. There was still room for the rise of live pig prices, but the impact of spot prices was significant, and the rhythm needed to be tracked [4]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Maintain a bullish view, but closely track the spot market and secondary fattening situation due to the recent large increase. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Buy LH2409 - C - 17700, sell LH2407 - C - 19500, and sell LH2407 - P - 17400 [5]. 3.2 Data Chart & Logical Analysis 3.2.1 Live Pig Price - This week, the overall price of live pigs across the country rose steadily, showing a pattern of stronger in the north and weaker in the south. By May 11, the average price of live pigs in different regions had different degrees of increase or decrease. The slowdown of large - scale enterprise sales progress, farmers' reluctance to sell, the reduction of large - weight pig sources, and the entry of secondary fattening all contributed to the price rise [10]. 3.2.2 Changes in Slaughter and Consumption - Slaughter: At the beginning of the month, the sales progress of large - scale enterprises and the willingness of ordinary farmers to sell pigs slowed down, and the supply tightened. The weight of slaughtered pigs decreased, the fat - to - standard price spread widened, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening in the north increased, resulting in a low completion rate of slaughter enterprises' plans. - Consumption: The frozen product storage rate continued to decline, and the frozen product inventory decreased slightly. Although the slaughter volume also decreased slightly, the apparent demand was still average, and the fresh sales rate of live pigs remained stable. The sales of the白条 market were general, and the terminal demand was weak [11]. 3.2.3 Breeding Profit - This week, the spot price of live pigs rebounded rapidly, and the breeding profit continued to strengthen. The self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 43.97 yuan/head, an increase of 11.96 yuan/head compared with last week; the profit of purchasing piglets was 96.25 yuan/head, an increase of 22.65 yuan; the profit of selling piglets was 188.62 yuan/head, a decrease of 15.89 yuan/head. The feed price remained stable, and the breeding cost increased, but the increase in pig prices was relatively larger, so the breeding profit showed an improving trend [16]. 3.2.4 Sow & Piglet Prices - Piglets: The price of 7 - kg piglets was 565 yuan/head, a decrease of 6 yuan/head compared with last week; the price of 15 - kg piglets was 694 yuan/head, a decrease of 12 yuan/head. The price of piglets showed a weak decline due to the decrease in seasonal replenishment and farmers' resistance, but there was still price support due to the relatively low supply. - Sows: The national price of二元 sows was 1577 yuan/head, remaining stable compared with last week. The ratio of culled sows to commercial pigs continued to rise, and farmers' enthusiasm for breeding and replenishment increased. The overall production performance of sows was good [20]. 3.2.5 Inventory of Reproductive Sows - In April, the inventory of reproductive sows increased month - on - month according to different data sources. The increase in the number of reproductive sows was promoted by good breeding profits, with the increase rate of small - scale farmers being greater than that of large - scale enterprises. The number of culled sows decreased, and the overall production performance of sows continued to improve [23].