热点追踪周报：由创新高个股看市场投资热点（第210期）-20250905

• The report introduces a quantitative model named "250-day new high distance" to track market trends and identify hot sectors. The model calculates the distance between the latest closing price and the highest closing price in the past 250 trading days using the formula: $ 250\text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Close}{t}}{\text{ts_max}(\text{Close}, 250)} $ where $\text{Close}{t}$ represents the latest closing price, and $\text{ts_max}(\text{Close}, 250)$ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days. If the latest closing price reaches a new high, the distance is 0; otherwise, it is a positive value indicating the degree of pullback[11][12][13] - The report evaluates the "250-day new high distance" model as an effective tool for momentum and trend-following strategies, supported by academic studies and practical applications in stock selection frameworks like CANSLIM and "Stock Market Wizard"[11][18] - The report applies the "250-day new high distance" model to major indices, showing their respective distances from the 250-day high as of September 5, 2025: - Shanghai Composite Index: 1.83% - Shenzhen Component Index: 1.86% - CSI 300: 1.40% - CSI 500: 2.76% - CSI 1000: 3.41% - CSI 2000: 3.64% - ChiNext Index: 0.00% - STAR 50 Index: 7.04%[12][13][30] - The report identifies industries and concept indices close to their 250-day highs, such as Electric Power Equipment & New Energy, Nonferrous Metals, Basic Chemicals, and Mechanical sectors, as well as thematic indices like Wind Photovoltaics, Sodium-ion Batteries, and New Energy Vehicles[13][15][30] - The report tracks individual stocks that have reached 250-day highs in the past 20 trading days, identifying 1,715 stocks. The industries with the highest number of such stocks are Mechanical (242), Electronics (221), and Basic Chemicals (190). The sectors with the highest proportion of new-high stocks are Nonferrous Metals (68.55%), Electronics (45.85%), and Comprehensive (43.48%)[19][20][31] - The report introduces a screening method for "stable new-high stocks" based on factors such as analyst attention, relative price strength, price path smoothness, and trend sustainability. Key metrics include: - Analyst attention: At least 5 buy or overweight ratings in the past 3 months - Relative price strength: Top 20% in 250-day price change - Price path smoothness: Stock displacement ratio - Trend sustainability: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days and past 5 days[24][26][27] - Using the above criteria, the report identifies 50 stable new-high stocks, with the highest representation in Technology (19 stocks) and Cyclical sectors (13 stocks). Within Technology, Electronics dominate, while Basic Chemicals lead in Cyclical sectors[27][31]