Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bearish trend with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bearish trend with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, showing a slightly bearish trend with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆, representing a slightly bearish trend with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, meaning the short-term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the trading floor, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] Report's Core View - The international oil price dropped overnight, and the SC11 contract fell 0.56% during the day. The increase in US EIA crude oil inventory last week and potential OPEC+ production increase may lead to a bearish supply-demand situation. Hold short positions on the SC11 contract and use out-of-the-money call options for protection [2] - Fuel oil futures continued to decline. The supply pressure of low-sulfur fuel oil eased, and high-sulfur fuel oil should be watched for potential geopolitical premium [3] - The asphalt futures price continued to decline, breaking through the previous support level. The supply-demand situation is expected to tighten marginally, and it's advisable to consider a long crack spread strategy [4] - The 9 - month CP of liquefied petroleum gas remained stable. After the end of the off - season, it showed some resilience. The short - term futures market shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fell, and the SC11 contract dropped 0.56% during the day. US EIA crude oil inventory increased by 2415000 barrels last week. With potential OPEC+ production increase and demand weakening after the peak season, there is a risk of inventory build - up. Hold short positions on the SC11 contract above 495 yuan/barrel and use out - of - the - money call options for protection [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil futures continued to decline. The third batch of quotas was issued later than expected. The supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) eased, with a significant drop in warehouse receipts today. The fundamental of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU) lacks obvious drivers, but geopolitical conflicts in supply countries may bring premium [3] Asphalt - The asphalt futures price continued to decline, breaking through the previous support level of 3450 yuan/ton. The spot price decline was limited, and the basis continued to rise. The factory inventory removal was weak, and the social inventory continued to decline. Consider a long crack spread strategy [4] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The 9 - month CP remained stable. After the end of the gas off - season, it showed resilience. International market has a good bottom support due to strong East Asian chemical demand. The import cost and domestic demand increased, and the civil gas price was adjusted upwards. The short - term futures market shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness [5]
能源日报-20250905
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-09-05 13:03