黑色系周度报告-20250905

1. Report General Information - Report title: Black Series Weekly Report [2] - Report date: September 5, 2025 [2] - Author: Shi Lei, Research Assistant Shi Zhuoran [2] 2. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 3. Report Core Views Mid - to - Long - Term - For rebar and iron ore, this week, the market sentiment remained weak at the beginning and middle of the week, with the rebar main contract stabilizing and rebounding on Friday. After the military parade on Wednesday, the impact of production restrictions was coming to an end, and the expectation of upstream and downstream resumption of production increased. The supply and demand of rebar weakened simultaneously this week, and the contraction of steel mill profits formed a negative feedback. Attention should be paid to the recovery of peak - season demand. The global iron ore shipments increased significantly this period, and the daily average hot metal output reached a new low in the past six months. The iron ore futures price was under pressure due to the situation of strong supply and weak demand [65]. - For float glass, the float glass start - up rate increased month - on - month, the weekly output remained stable, and the in - factory inventory accumulated, with cautious market sentiment. For soda ash, the in - factory inventory continued to decline, downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand, the improvement of the supply - demand fundamentals was limited, and the main contract fluctuated weakly and steadily [69]. Short - Term - For the black series, recently, the main contracts of the black series mainly oscillated within a range. Attention should be paid to the start of demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [66]. - For glass and soda ash, the fundamentals improved limitedly this week, and the market continued to consolidate at the bottom [70]. 4. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Series One - Week Market Review | Variety | Futures Closing Price Change | Futures Closing Price Change Rate | Spot Price | Basis (Unconverted) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Rebar (RB2601) | - 17.0 | - 1% | 3240.0 | 97.0 | | Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2601) | - 6.0 | - 0.2% | 3380.0 | 40.0 | | Iron Ore (I2601) | 2.0 | 0.3% | 790.0 | 0.5 | | Coke (J2601) | 3.5 | 0.2% | 1670.0 | 23.5 | | Coking Coal (JM2601) | 7.5 | 0.7% | 1350.0 | 191.5 | | Glass (FG601) | 7.0 | 0.6% | 1240.0 | 51.0 | | Soda Ash (SA601) | 6.0 | 0.5% | 1283.8 | - 18.3 | [3] Rebar - Profit: On September 4, the rebar blast furnace profit was reported at 1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared to August 28 [7]. - Supply: As of September 5, the blast furnace start - up rate was 80.4%, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points; the daily average hot metal output was 228.84 tons, a decrease of 11.29 tons; the rebar output was 218.68 tons, a decrease of 1.88 tons [12]. - Demand: In the week of September 5, the apparent consumption of rebar was reported at 202.07 tons, a decrease of 2.14 tons month - on - month; as of September 4, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was reported at 101,009 tons [17]. - Inventory: In the week of September 5, the social inventory of rebar was reported at 468.66 tons, an increase of 14.89 tons month - on - month; the in - factory inventory was reported at 171.34 tons, an increase of 1.72 tons month - on - month [22]. Iron Ore - Supply: In the week of August 29, the global iron ore shipments were reported at 3556.8 tons, an increase of 241 tons month - on - month; the arrival volume at 47 ports in the country was reported at 2645 tons, an increase of 182.7 tons month - on - month [27]. - Inventory: In the week of September 5, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was reported at 14425.72 tons, an increase of 37.7 tons month - on - month; the inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel enterprises was reported at 8939.87 tons, a decrease of 67.32 tons month - on - month [30]. - Demand: In the week of September 5, the daily average port clearance volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was reported at 330.33 tons, a decrease of 3.81 tons month - on - month; as of September 4, the trading volume at major ports in China was reported at 90.5 tons [35]. Float Glass - Supply: In the week of September 5, the number of float glass production lines in operation was reported at 225, an increase of 1 compared to the previous week; the weekly output was reported at 1117025 tons, the same as the previous week; as of September 4, the capacity utilization rate of float glass was reported at 79.78%, the same as the previous week; the start - up rate of float glass was reported at 76.01%, an increase of 0.33 percentage points month - on - month [40]. - Inventory: In the week of September 5, the in - factory inventory of float glass was reported at 6305.0 million weight boxes, an increase of 48.4 million weight boxes compared to August 29; the available days of in - factory inventory were 26.9 days, an increase of 0.2 days month - on - month [44]. - Demand: As of September 1, the order days of glass deep - processing downstream manufacturers were 10.4 days [48]. Soda Ash - Supply: In the week of September 5, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was reported at 86.22%, an increase of 3.75 percentage points compared to the previous week; the output was reported at 75.17 tons, an increase of 3.26 tons compared to the previous week [53]. - Inventory: As of September 5, the in - factory inventory of soda ash was reported at 182.21 tons, a decrease of 4.54 tons compared to August 29 [58]. - Sales Rate: As of September 5, the sales rate of soda ash was reported at 106.04%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points compared to August 29 [62].