农产品日报-20250905

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Positive Outlook: Soybean No. 1, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Corn, Live Hogs, Eggs [1] - Neutral Outlook: Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil [1] Core Views - Market sentiment is improving due to expected anti - involution regulations, affecting commodity prices [2][4] - Uncertainties in Sino - US trade impact soybean supply and market expectations [3][4] - Different commodities have unique supply - demand situations and price trends based on seasonality, weather, and trade policies [2][3][4][6][7][8][9] Summary by Commodity Soybean No. 1 - Domestic soybean main contract reduced positions, with prices oscillating upwards. Market sentiment improved due to expected regulations [2] - 45,299 tons of domestic soybeans were auctioned this Friday, with 10,570 tons sold at an average price of 4,110 yuan/ton [2] - Domestic soybeans are growing well, and new soybeans will be listed in late September. Monitor new - season prices and trade policies [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - As of September 2nd, 16% of US soybean areas were affected by drought. Future weather will be less rainy and hotter [3] - Global oil prices may drive up soybean crushing. Domestic soybean meal is weak, but supply is sufficient in Q4. There may be a supply gap in Q1 next year if Sino - US trade is not resolved [3] - The market may oscillate in the short - term. A cautious bullish view is held for the long - term [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Main contracts of soybean and palm oil increased positions and prices. Market sentiment improved due to expected regulations [4] - Sino - US soybean trade uncertainty affects supply expectations. Overseas palm oil supply will decrease in Q4, and domestic demand is strong in Q4 [4] - Consider buying on dips in the long - term, while controlling risks [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed main contracts slightly increased positions, with prices stabilizing and rising. Monitor Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade negotiations [6] - New - season rapeseed supply from major producers will be abundant. China's rapeseed imports are diversifying, and the domestic market is in a tight - balance state [6] - Domestic rapeseed prices are expected to rise [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures continued to strengthen. As of September 5th, 20 auctions of imported corn totaled about 4.4387 million tons, with 1.434 million tons sold, and the September成交 rate increased [7] - Domestic new - season corn is likely to be a bumper harvest, but old - crop inventory is low. Traders are optimistic about new - season corn [7] - Corn may remain strong before new - grain purchase and then weaken [7] Live Hogs - Live hog futures weakened and then recovered due to expected anti - involution policies. Spot prices are weak, and supply pressure is high in H2 [8] - Monitor policy variables and price support. Currently, it is advisable to wait and see [8] Eggs - Egg futures were pressured by increased positions, halting the previous rebound. Spot prices are rising due to pre - Mid - Autumn Festival demand [9] - Hen culling has increased, and chick replenishment in August was low. Egg - laying hen production is expected to decline by the end of the year [9] - Monitor spot price trends and capacity reduction. Consider long positions in far - month contracts for H1 next year and focus on short - position exits in near - month contracts [9]