股指月报：持续上涨后，波动加剧-20250905

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report After continuous upward movement, high - level hot sectors such as AI have recently adjusted, and together with the shrinking market trading volume, the short - term index faces certain adjustment pressure. However, in the long - run, policies still support the capital market, and the main strategy is to go long on dips [10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Important News: The Chinese President proposed to build an AI application cooperation center; the joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank held a meeting; the central bank conducted 100 billion yuan of repurchase operations; Wu Qing aimed to consolidate the stable and positive momentum of the capital market [10]. - Economic and Corporate Earnings: In July, industrial added value increased by 5.7% year - on - year, fixed - asset investment from January to July increased by 1.6%, and retail sales rose by 3.7% year - on - year. In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points. In July, M1 and M2 growth rates were 5.6% and 8.8% respectively. The social financing increment was 1.13 trillion yuan, and exports and imports increased by 7.2% and 4.1% respectively [10]. - Interest Rates and Credit Environment: In August, the stock market rose significantly, causing the 10 - year Treasury bond rate to rebound and the credit bond rate to decline, with a lower credit spread and loose liquidity [10]. - Trading Strategy Recommendations: Hold a small number of IM long positions in the long - term due to medium - low valuation and long - term discount; hold IF long positions for six months as a new interest - rate cut cycle may benefit high - dividend assets [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Spot Market: The Shanghai Composite Index reached 3857.93, up 7.97%; the Shenzhen Component Index was at 12696.15, up 15.32%, etc. [14]. - Futures Market: IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts all showed varying degrees of increase [15]. 3.3 Economic and Corporate Earnings - Economic Indicators: In Q2 2025, GDP growth was 5.2%. In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%. In July, consumption growth was 3.7%, exports increased by 7.2%, and investment growth was 1.6% [31][34][37]. - Corporate Earnings: In the 2025 semi - annual report, the revenue growth rate was flat year - on - year and up 0.4% quarter - on - quarter, and the net profit growth rate was 2.5% year - on - year and down 1.0% quarter - on - quarter [40]. 3.4 Interest Rates and Credit Environment - Interest Rates: The 10 - year Treasury bond rate rebounded, and the 3 - year AA - corporate bond rate is presented in the chart [43]. - Credit Environment: In July 2025, M1 and M2 growth rates were 5.6% and 8.8% respectively. The social financing increment was 1.13 trillion yuan, mainly due to government bonds and bill financing growth, while resident and corporate credit data declined [54]. 3.5 Capital Flows - Inflow: This week, 20.528 billion shares of partial - stock funds were newly established, and ETF trading volume increased rapidly. In August, the margin trading balance increased by nearly 300 billion yuan, reaching a record high [60][63]. - Outflow: In August, major shareholders had a net increase of - 34.467 billion yuan, and the number of IPO approvals was 7 [66]. 3.6 Valuation - The price - to - earnings ratios (TTM) of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 11.83, 13.85, 32.09, and 44.68 respectively; the price - to - book ratios (LF) were 1.29, 1.44, 2.13, and 2.37 respectively [70].