工业硅、多晶硅月报：工业硅震荡跟随，多晶硅关注产能整合落地进展以及下游顺价情况-20250905

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the document regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon remained in a "weak reality" situation in August with both supply and demand increasing, and its price was expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton. The market should pay attention to the second - wave fermentation of the "anti - involution" sentiment and the impact of downstream polysilicon capacity integration [15]. - Polysilicon continued the "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. The short - term focus was on capacity integration policies and downstream price - passing progress. If there was substantial progress in capacity integration in September, the price was expected to rise, with high volatility in the range of 47,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton [17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Monthly Key Points Summary - In August, polysilicon production was 131,700 tons (SMM), a monthly increase of 25,400 tons; cumulative production from January to August was 811,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.67%. DMC production was 219,600 tons (Baichuan Yingfu), a monthly increase of 13,100 tons; cumulative production from January to August was 1.653 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.58%. From January to July, the cumulative production of aluminum alloy was 10.628 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.409 million tons or 15.28%. From January to July, the cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 409,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5,400 tons or 1.33%. At the end of August, industrial silicon inventory was 688,200 tons (Baichuan Yingfu) [13]. - As of August 31, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - permeable) industrial silicon in East China was 8,950 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 600 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9,400 yuan/ton, with a discounted futures price of 8,600 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 750 yuan/ton. The average production cost of industrial silicon in Xinjiang was 8,395.83 yuan/ton, 9,393.75 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 9,090.48 yuan/ton in Sichuan. In August 2025, industrial silicon production was 370,500 tons (Baichuan Yingfu), a monthly increase of 49,300 tons; cumulative production from January to August was 2.5505 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 538,600 tons or 17.44% [14]. - Fundamental Assessment - Industrial Silicon: In August, both supply and demand of industrial silicon increased, but it was still in a "weak reality" pattern. The price was expected to fluctuate weakly, with an estimated price range of 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton [15]. - Polysilicon: Polysilicon continued the "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. The short - term focus was on capacity integration policies and downstream price - passing progress. The price was expected to be highly volatile in the range of 47,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton [17]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Industrial Silicon: As of August 31, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - permeable) industrial silicon in East China was 8,950 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 600 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9,400 yuan/ton, with a discounted futures price of 8,600 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 750 yuan/ton [22]. - Polysilicon: As of August 31, 2025, the average price of N - type polysilicon re -投料 was 49 yuan/kg, a monthly increase of 2.5 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense material was 48 yuan/kg, a monthly increase of 2.5 yuan/kg [25]. 3.3 Industrial Silicon - Total Production: In August 2025, industrial silicon production was 370,500 tons (Baichuan Yingfu), a monthly increase of 49,300 tons; cumulative production from January to August was 2.5505 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 538,600 tons or 17.44% [30]. - Production in Main Producing Areas: The document shows the production trends of industrial silicon in main producing areas such as Xinjiang, Yunnan, Sichuan, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu through charts [32][34][37]. - Production Cost: As of August 31, 2025, the electricity price and silicon coal price in main producing areas remained flat month - on - month. The average production cost of industrial silicon in Xinjiang was 8,395.83 yuan/ton, 9,393.75 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 9,090.48 yuan/ton in Sichuan [46]. - Visible Inventory: At the end of August, industrial silicon inventory was 688,200 tons (Baichuan Yingfu), remaining at a high level. Factory inventory was 261,400 tons, market inventory was 174,500 tons, and registered warehouse receipt inventory was 252,300 tons [49]. 3.4 Polysilicon - Production: In August, polysilicon production was 131,700 tons (SMM), a monthly increase of 25,400 tons; cumulative production from January to August was 811,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.67% [54]. - Operating Rate and Scheduling: In August, the operating rate of polysilicon was 45.78% (Baichuan Yingfu), a monthly increase of 6.55 percentage points. SMM predicted that the production in August would be 126,700 tons, with a month - on - month decrease in the operating rate [57]. - Inventory: As of August 31, 2025, polysilicon inventory was 233,000 tons (Baichuan Yingfu) and 213,000 tons (SMM), with a certain reduction in factory inventory [60]. - Cost and Profit: As of August 31, 2025, the production cost of polysilicon was 41,322.29 yuan/ton (Baichuan Yingfu), and the gross profit was 6,153.90 yuan/ton, showing a continuous month - on - month improvement [63]. - Silicon Wafer: In August, silicon wafer production was 56.04 GW (SMM), a monthly increase of 3.29 GW; cumulative production from January to August was 429.12 GW, a year - on - year decrease of 8.77%. As of August 31, 2025, silicon wafer inventory was 18.05 GW (SMM), a slight month - on - month decrease; the predicted production in September was 57.53 GW, a continuous month - on - month increase [66][69]. - Battery Cell: In August, battery cell production was 58.27 GW (SMM), a monthly increase of 0.08 GW; the operating rate was 56.89%, a monthly decrease of 2.17 percentage points. Cumulative production from January to August was 446.87 GW, a year - on - year increase of 0.96%. As of September 1, 2025, the inventory of photovoltaic battery export factories was 7.81 GW (SMM), a month - on - month increase; the predicted production in September was 60.04 GW, a slight month - on - month increase [74][77]. - Module: In August, module production was 49.2 GW (SMM), a monthly increase of 2.1 GW; the operating rate was 49.09%, a monthly increase of 3.17 percentage points. Cumulative production from January to August was 379.6 GW, a year - on - year increase of 1.31%. As of September 1, 2025, the finished product inventory of photovoltaic modules was 33.9 GW (SMM), a month - on - month decrease; the predicted production in August was 50.3 GW, an increase compared to August [82][85]. 3.5 Organic Silicon - Production: In August, DMC production was 219,600 tons (Baichuan Yingfu), a monthly increase of 13,100 tons; cumulative production from January to August was 1.653 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.58% [92]. - Price and Profit: As of August 31, 2025, the average price of organic silicon was 10,750 yuan/ton (SMM), a monthly decrease of 1,650 yuan/ton. The gross profit of DMC was - 1,859.38 yuan/ton (Baichuan Yingfu), showing a month - on - month weakening [95]. - Inventory: As of August 31, 2025, DMC inventory was 49,300 tons (Baichuan Yingfu), a monthly increase of 3,600 tons [98]. 3.6 Silicon Aluminum Alloy and Export - Aluminum Alloy: As of August 31, 2025, the price of primary aluminum alloy A356 was 21,140 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 110 yuan/ton; the price of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 was 20,770 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 680 yuan/ton. From January to July, the cumulative production of aluminum alloy was 10.628 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.409 million tons or 15.28%. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 56.4%, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 55.3% [103][106]. - Export: From January to July, the cumulative net export of industrial silicon in China was 409,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5,400 tons or 1.33% [109].