甲醇月报：供需预期好转，关注多配机会-20250905

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current situation is the worst in reality, but there are expectations of marginal improvement in the future, and the room for further price decline is relatively limited. The market is currently in a state of weak reality but improving expectations, with spot prices stabilizing, and basis and inter - month spreads rising from the bottom. The market has started to focus on potential subsequent positive factors [11]. - It is recommended to pay attention to going long and positive spread trading opportunities at low prices [11]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: In August, against the backdrop of the domestic downstream off - season and increased imports, port inventories continued to rise, spot prices fluctuated weakly, and the basis and inter - month spreads generally fell to low levels. As negative factors were gradually realized, the market began to focus on potential positive factors in September, such as the expected startup of port MTO and the impact of overseas gas restrictions [11]. - Fundamentals - Supply: In August, domestic methanol production was 8.36 million tons, a slight month - on - month decline but a year - on - year increase of 8.4%. Overseas operating rates returned to medium - high levels, and imports were expected to return to high levels in August. Coal prices declined slightly from high levels, with a relatively small impact on the cost side [11]. - Demand: Port olefin plants continued to be shut down in August but were expected to resume operation in September. Traditional demand was currently weak but was expected to improve in the peak season [11]. - Valuation: As spot prices bottomed out and rebounded, the basis and inter - month spreads showed signs of stabilization. Coal prices declined slightly, and coal - to - methanol profits remained at a high level compared to the same period last year. The profits of port MTO plants returned to the medium - high level of the same period, and the high valuation of methanol began to be corrected downward [11]. - Inventory: Port inventories increased by over 570,000 tons in August, reaching a new high, with the latest port inventory at 1.4277 million tons. Enterprise inventories continued to decline slightly month - on - month, and the current inventory level was at a low level compared to the same period, with less pressure on enterprises [11]. - Strategy: Pay attention to going long and positive spread trading opportunities at low prices [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Transaction Volume and Open Interest: The market continued to increase positions [22]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Cost and Profit: Coal - to - methanol production profits were good, while port inventories were at a historical high, and factory inventories had less pressure [34][37][39]. 3.4 Supply Side - Capacity: New domestic methanol production capacity is expected to be put into operation, with a total of 7.45 million tons of new capacity planned to be put into operation in 2025, mainly in the northwest region [48]. - Production and Import: Domestic methanol operating rates are expected to continue to rise, and overseas operating rates have returned to a high level compared to the same period, with subsequent import pressure remaining [11]. - Arrival Volume: The arrival volume data shows the arrival situation in different regions [63][64]. - International Price Difference and Domestic Freight: There are price differences between domestic and international markets, and domestic freight also shows certain trends [68][73]. 3.5 Demand Side - Methanol - to - Olefins: MTO profits are continuously being repaired, and the operating rates of related plants are expected to improve [79]. - Downstream Products: The production profits and operating rates of downstream products such as PP also show different trends [81]. - Related Spreads and Demand Structure: There are certain spreads between MTO - related products, and the demand structure of methanol downstream also shows different characteristics [84][92]. 3.6 Option - Related - Option Volume, Open Interest, and Volatility: The document provides data and trends on methanol option volume, open interest, and volatility [107][109]. 3.7 Industry Structure Diagram - The document provides diagrams of the methanol industry chain and the research framework analysis mind - map [112][114].