聚酯月报：终端恢复速度较慢，上游估值难以走扩-20250905

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recovery speed of the terminal market is slow, and the upstream valuation is difficult to expand. PX, PTA, and MEG markets have different supply - demand and inventory situations. PX and MEG are expected to have inventory accumulation, while PTA is expected to continue de - stocking. The polyester end is gradually warming up, but the terminal performance is still poor. Attention should be paid to the follow - up performance of terminal orders and the opportunities of going long on dips following the raw materials during the peak season [11][12][13] Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - PX: Last month, the price first declined with crude oil and then increased due to unexpected production cuts in the raw material end. However, the actual unexpected maintenance volume was lower than expected, and the terminal performance was weak, suppressing the raw material valuation. Currently, the PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many unexpected short - term maintenance, with a low overall load center. But due to the commissioning of new PTA devices, the inventory accumulation range of PX is not large. The terminal and polyester data are gradually improving, and the valuation has limited downside space. However, due to the lack of driving force, PXN has limited upward momentum. The current valuation is at a moderately low level, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil during the peak season [11] - PTA: Last month, the processing fee first increased after unexpected maintenance and then was compressed again. PXN was weak due to inventory accumulation, and crude oil fluctuated downward, causing the PTA price to rise and then fall. In the future, the unexpected maintenance volume on the supply side has increased, and the inventory accumulation pattern has changed to de - stocking. However, due to the non - implementation of some maintenance, the processing fee is suppressed. On the demand side, the inventory pressure of polyester and chemical fiber is low, and the downstream and terminal operations have improved, but the terminal recovery speed is slow. In terms of valuation, PXN has limited downside space under the improved pattern brought by PTA commissioning, and the raw material end valuations are all at low levels. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX after the terminal performance improves during the peak season [12] - MEG: Last month, the port inventory continued to decline, providing strong support for the overall valuation. However, the valuation weakened with the news of new device commissioning plans. In terms of industry fundamentals, the maintenance devices at home and abroad have gradually started, and the operation rate has reached a high level, with a high domestic supply. However, due to the low port arrival volume in the short term, the port inventory is expected to be low. In the medium term, with the concentrated arrival of imports and the expected continuous high domestic load, the inventory will turn to accumulation in the fourth quarter. The current valuation is relatively high year - on - year, and the low short - term arrival volume supports the valuation, but there is downward pressure on the medium - term valuation [13] 2. Futures and Spot Markets - PX: The basis fluctuated weakly, and the spread strengthened. The open interest and trading volume of active contracts and total contracts are presented in relevant charts [32][39][42] - PTA: The basis gradually weakened, and the spread was weak. The open interest and trading volume of active contracts and total contracts are shown in relevant charts [45][51][54] - MEG: The basis first declined and then strengthened, and the spread fluctuated weakly. The open interest was at a low level, and the trading volume decreased. The open interest and trading volume of active contracts and total contracts are presented in relevant charts [57][63][66][69] - Overseas Commodity Prices: The overseas prices of PX, MEG, and PTA FOB China are shown in relevant charts [71][72] 3. Para - Xylene (PX) Fundamentals - Capacity: New capacity is expected to be added in 2025, such as the 300 - ton new capacity of Yantai Yulongdao [76] - Supply: The domestic and Asian PX loads are at a high level, and the maintenance volume in September is expected to further decrease, with an expected increase in production. The import volume from South Korea to China in August increased slightly [11] - Demand: The PTA load at the end of the month decreased slightly month - on - month. The maintenance volume in September decreased, and the average load is expected to be higher than that in August [11] - Inventory: The social inventory decreased year - on - year at the end of July, is expected to accumulate slightly in August, and will continue to accumulate in September [11] - Cost and Profit: PXN decreased by 33 dollars last month, and the short - process profit is relatively strong. The gasoline performance in the aromatics blending oil market improved slightly, and the gasoline cracking spread was weak [11][95] 4. PTA Fundamentals - Capacity: New capacity has been added in 2024 and 2025, such as the 250 - ton new capacity of Honggang Petrochemical (Phase III) in 2025 [127] - Supply: The PTA load at the end of the month decreased slightly month - on - month. The maintenance volume in September decreased, and the average load is expected to be higher than that in August [12] - Demand: The polyester load at the end of the month increased year - on - year, and the terminal situation has recovered but is still weak year - on - year [12] - Inventory: The PTA social inventory decreased year - on - month in August, and it is expected to continue de - stocking in September [12] - Profit and Valuation: The spot and futures processing fees increased month - on - month, but the overall processing fee is still weak [12] 5. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) Fundamentals - Capacity: New capacity is expected to be added in 2024 and 2025, such as the 80 - ton new capacity of Yulong Petrochemical 1 in 2025 [142] - Supply: The overall load of MEG has risen to a high level. The load of synthetic gas - based and ethylene - based production has increased. The import volume decreased slightly in July, and the arrival volume is expected to increase in the middle and late September [13][145] - Demand: The polyester load at the end of the month increased year - on - year, and the terminal situation has recovered but is still weak year - on - year [13] - Inventory: The port inventory decreased year - on - month, and the downstream factory inventory days decreased slightly. Although the domestic production increased in September, the port inventory is expected to remain low due to the concentrated arrival of ships in the middle and late period. In the medium term, inventory accumulation is expected [13] - Cost and Profit: The coal price was weakly volatile, and the ethylene price increased slightly. The valuation of MEG profit is relatively high [13][167] 6. Polyester and Terminal - Polyester - Capacity: New polyester filament devices have been commissioned, and new capacity has been added in 2024 and 2025, such as the 20 - ton new capacity of Hengchao in 2024 [184][187] - Supply: The operation rate has continued to recover, and the operation rates of polyester filament, short - fiber, and bottle - chip have increased [190][193] - Inventory: The inventory pressure of polyester filament is moderate, the short - fiber inventory is neutral year - on - year, and the bottle - chip inventory is still high [197][200] - Profit: The profit of polyester filament has improved [206] - Terminal - Operation: The operation rate is still weak year - on - year [210] - Orders and Inventory: Orders have continued to improve, inventory has decreased, and raw material inventory has increased [219] - Consumption: The growth rate of domestic textile and clothing demand has decreased, and exports are weak [224]