蛋白粕月报：等待巴西种植选择方向-20250905

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The import cost of soybeans has maintained a weak and stable trend recently. Attention should be paid to the cost performance after stabilization. The domestic soybean meal market has been experiencing high - level提货, and it is expected that the spot side may start destocking in September, which will support the oil mills' profit margins. In the future, it is necessary to focus on whether the improving situation of US soybeans and the trading during the Brazilian planting season can marginally improve the current oversupply situation. Regarding the profit margins, attention should be paid to whether the提货 level can be sustained. It is expected that soybean meal will mainly fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to try to go long at the lower end of the soybean meal cost range and be cautious about profit margins and supply pressure at the upper end [10][11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - International Soybeans: In August, US soybeans maintained a monthly - level sideways oscillation trend. The US soybean balance sheet tightened marginally as the production decreased, but the global soybean supply remained loose without significant marginal improvement. The expected good situation of the US soybean balance sheet supported the CBOT futures. The Brazilian soybean premium quotes decreased due to rumors of Sino - US soybean negotiations, and the import cost of soybeans slightly declined in August. In the future, the valuation of US soybeans is at a slightly low level. If Sino - US soybean trade resumes as normal, the Brazilian soybean quotes may still have a small downward space compared with previous years. The rebound of US soybeans and the decline of Brazilian premiums may offset each other. Coupled with the expected decrease in the US soybean yield per unit and the trading during the Brazilian planting season, the room for further decline in the domestic soybean import cost is limited, but the upward space is also restricted by the fact that the supply side has not shown a significant downward trend [10]. - Domestic Double - Meal: In August, the domestic soybean meal spot price was mainly weakly stable, and the basis was stable. The decrease in Brazilian prices led to a decline in import costs, which pressured the domestic soybean meal futures prices. The domestic trading volume was average, and the提货 was at a relatively high level. The inventory days of feed enterprises were 8.87 days, slightly higher than the same period last year. As of August 26, the institutional statistics showed that the soybean purchases for March were 1.379 billion tons, April 1.029 billion tons, May 1.181 billion tons, June 1.272 billion tons, July 1.069 billion tons, August 917 million tons, September 850 million tons, and October 706 million tons. The current purchase progress indicates that the domestic soybean inventory may decline around the end of September. Coupled with the large - scale提货 of domestic soybean meal currently, the market may have stocked up in advance for the double festivals. The domestic soybean - based basis has certain support under the strong提货 situation. It is expected that the domestic soybean meal will first experience a decline in profit margins due to the expectation of US soybean imports, then the soybean import cost will stabilize after the trading of Brazilian price cuts and US soybean rebounds ends, and then it will rebound from the bottom during the South American planting season. After that, the market trend will depend on the development of the South American planting season [10]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to try to go long at the lower end of the soybean meal cost range and be cautious about profit margins and supply pressure at the upper end [10][11][12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Spot Prices: Relevant charts show the spot prices of soybean meal in Dongguan, Guangdong and rapeseed meal in Huangpu, Guangdong from 2021 - 2025 [18][19]. - Basis of Main Contracts: Relevant charts show the basis of soybean meal 01 contract and rapeseed meal 01 contract [21][22]. - Price Spreads: Relevant charts show the price spreads such as soybean meal 11 - 1, soybean meal 01 - rapeseed meal 01, soybean meal 01 - 05, and soybean meal 03 - 05 [24][25]. - Fund Positions: Relevant charts show the net long positions of US soybean and US soybean meal managed funds [27][29][30]. 3.3 Supply Side - US Soybean Planting Progress: Relevant charts show the US soybean planting progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, and good - quality rate from 2021 - 2025 [33][34]. - Weather Conditions: There is a possibility of La Nina occurring from October 2025 to January. Relevant charts show the precipitation in US soybean - producing areas and Canadian rapeseed - producing areas, as well as the probability of La Nina occurrence and its impact on climate [36][38][39]. - US Soybean Export Progress: Relevant charts show the total amount of US soybean export contracts signed with China in the current market year, the sales completion rate of US soybeans in the current year, the total amount of US soybean export contracts signed in the current market year, and the cumulative value of US soybean exports to China in the current market year [52][53]. - China's Oilseed Imports: Relevant charts show the monthly import and forecast of soybeans and rapeseeds in China from 2021 - 2025 [55][56]. - China's Oil Mill Crushing Situation: Relevant charts show the soybean and rapeseed crushing volume of major oil mills in China [57][58]. 3.4 Profit and Inventory - Oilseed Inventory: Relevant charts show the soybean port inventory and the rapeseed inventory of major oil mills from 2021 - 2025 [61][62]. - Protein Meal Inventory: Relevant charts show the soybean meal and rapeseed meal inventory of coastal major oil mills from 2021 - 2025 [64][65]. - Protein Meal Crushing Profit: Relevant charts show the crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the crushing profit of imported rapeseeds along the coast from 2021 - 2025 [66][67]. 3.5 Demand Side - Soybean Meal Transaction and Consumption: Relevant charts show the cumulative transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills in the crop year and the apparent consumption of soybean meal from 2021 - 2025 [69]. - Breeding Profit: Relevant charts show the average profit per pig in self - breeding and self - raising and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers from 2021 - 2025 [71][72].