锡月报:短期现货偏紧,关注缅甸复产情况-20250905
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-09-05 13:26
- Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, domestic tin prices fluctuated strongly. The main reasons were the positive macro - atmosphere and the slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar, which led to high ore prices and pushed up the center of tin prices. - On the supply side, the resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar was slow. The shortage of tin mines in Yunnan was still severe, with smelters' raw material inventory generally less than 30 days and low operating rates. Some smelting enterprises planned to conduct maintenance in September, further suppressing production. In Jiangxi, smelting enterprises maintained normal production, but the shortage of crude tin supply made it difficult to increase refined tin production. It is estimated that the refined tin production in September will decrease by 29.89% month - on - month. - On the demand side, it was the off - season for downstream consumption. Traditional consumption areas were weak. Although AI computing power increased some tin demand, the scale was still low, having limited impact on overall demand. The spot trading of tin was light due to weak terminal demand. - Overall, although the off - season consumption on the demand side was a bit weak, the short - term decline in supply was obvious. It is expected that tin prices will fluctuate mainly. [12][13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost end: Although the mining licenses in Wa State, Myanmar have been approved, the resumption progress is slow. It is expected that the tin ore supply will not significantly recover until the fourth quarter. In July, the domestic tin ore import volume was 10,200 tons (equivalent to about 4,335 metal tons), a month - on - month decrease of 13.71% and a year - on - year decrease of 31.79%, 688 metal tons less than in June. - Supply end: The slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar and the shortage of tin mines in Yunnan led to low smelter operating rates. It is estimated that the refined tin production in September will decrease by 29.89% month - on - month. - Demand end: The consumption of electronic products such as smartphones and tablets was sluggish. The growth of emerging industries such as servers and AI glasses was fast but the scale was low, having limited impact on tin solder demand. After the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation, the component production decreased, leading to a significant decline in the demand for photovoltaic solder strips. The demand for tin in areas such as tin - plated sheets and chemicals was relatively stable. Downstream enterprises generally had low inventory levels and mainly purchased on - demand at low prices. [12] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market No specific analysis content is provided, only figures about the basis of Shanghai tin main contract and LME tin premium/discount are presented. [19] 3.3 Cost End - The short - term supply of tin ore is generally tight, and the processing fees remain at a low level. [27] 3.4 Supply End - The resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar is slow. Yunnan has a severe shortage of tin mines, and smelters' raw material inventory is generally less than 30 days. Some smelting enterprises in Yunnan plan to conduct maintenance in September, and the refined tin production in Jiangxi is difficult to increase due to the shortage of crude tin supply. It is estimated that the refined tin production in September will decrease by 29.89% month - on - month. [12] 3.5 Demand End - Semiconductor: China's semiconductor sales growth rate rebounded slightly, and global semiconductor sales maintained high growth. - Electronics: In the second quarter of 2025, the global PC shipments increased by 8.4% year - on - year. Mobile phone consumption continued to be sluggish, and it is predicted that the global smartphone shipments in 2025 will increase by 0.6% year - on - year to 1.24 billion units. The "trade - in" subsidy policy in the first half of the year stimulated the growth of consumer electronics to some extent, but the demand recovery was limited. - Automobile: In the first half of 2025, the new energy vehicle production increased by 40% year - on - year. - Home appliances: No overall summary is provided, but data on the production of various home appliances such as washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, and color TVs are presented. - Photovoltaic: There was a phased rush - installation in the first five months, with the installation volume growing by nearly 100% year - on - year. After the end of the rush - installation in June, the installation volume declined significantly. - Other: Tin consumption in the tin - plate field continued to decline, while the PVC output increased slightly year - on - year in the first half of the year. [46][49][55] 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance A supply - demand balance table from January 2023 to June 2025 is provided, including data on refined tin production, export, import, social inventory, social inventory change, and apparent consumption. [73]