苯乙烯月报：供需双弱背景下，强宏观无济于事-20250905

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This month, the Shanghai Composite Index reached a ten - year high, and the macro sentiment improved, but it still couldn't stop the decline in styrene prices. With the decrease in the pure benzene - naphtha (BZN spread) and the increase in the profit of EB non - integrated plants, the overall valuation is moderately high. Under the situation of a wide supply of pure benzene, styrene production has increased. Although the seasonal peak season is approaching and the downstream three - S production has rebounded slightly, due to the weak supply - demand situation, the inventory in factories and ports has increased significantly, with weak upward support. In the short term, styrene is expected to fluctuate with a downward bias. The recommended strategy is to hold short positions [11]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Policy and Market: The Shanghai Composite Index reached a ten - year high this month, but styrene prices still fell [11]. - Valuation: Styrene showed a monthly decline (spot > futures > cost), with the basis weakening, the BZN spread weakening, and the profit of EB non - integrated plants weakening [11]. - Cost: The price of East China pure benzene fell by - 3.86% this month, and the pure benzene operation rate was moderately high. In July, the domestic pure benzene import volume was 5078800 tons, a 43.24% increase from June and a 45.27% increase from last year, mainly from the Middle East [11]. - Supply: The EB capacity utilization rate was 79.7%, a 2.53% increase from the previous month, a 14.84% increase from last year, and a 5.42% increase compared to the same period in the past five years. According to the production plan, there are fewer production plans in the third quarter and more maintenance in September, and the greatest production pressure for the whole year is in the fourth quarter [11]. - Import and Export: In July, the EB import volume was 221000 tons, a 0.26% increase from June and an 18.45% increase from last year. With the reduction of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the import volume has recovered [11]. - Demand: The weighted operation rate of the downstream three - S was 42.73%, a - 2.53% decrease from the previous month; the PS operation rate was 61.00%, a 1.84% increase from the previous month and an 18.24% increase from last year; the EPS operation rate was 52.52%, a - 9.98% decrease from the previous month and a - 4.73% decrease from last year; the ABS operation rate was 69.00%, a - 2.54% decrease from the previous month and a 10.58% increase from last year. As the seasonal peak season approaches, the operation rate will fluctuate and rise at a low level [11]. - Inventory: The in - factory EB inventory was 214900 tons, a 1.61% increase in inventory from the previous month and a 28.62% increase compared to the same period last year; the EB inventory at Jiangsu ports was 196500 tons, a 23.58% increase in inventory from the previous month and a 568.37% increase compared to the same period last year. The significant increase in port inventory has severely suppressed the futures price [11]. - Next - Month Forecast: For styrene (EB2510), the reference fluctuation range is (6900 - 7200) [11]. - Recommended Strategy: It is recommended to hold short positions [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - The EB continuous 1 - continuous 2 spread is oscillating at the bottom. Multiple charts show the historical data of styrene spot prices, futures contract prices, basis, spreads between different contracts, trading volume, and open interest, etc. [17][19][24] 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Inventory: Charts show the historical data of pure benzene port inventory, styrene port inventory, and styrene factory inventory [33][35]. - Profit: Styrene profit has declined. The production process of styrene is mainly the ethylbenzene dehydrogenation method (85%), followed by the PO/SM co - production method (12%) and the C8 extraction method (3%). The top ten styrene production enterprises account for 44% of the total production capacity [40][42][46] 3.4 Cost - Production Plan: The total planned production capacity of pure benzene in 2025 is 228, and the total planned production capacity of its downstream products is 311. There is a supply - demand gap throughout the year, especially in the fourth quarter [50]. - Spread and Profit: The BZN spread continues to oscillate downward, and the pure benzene import profit chart shows historical data [60]. - Operation Rate: The pure benzene operation rate is moderately high, and charts show the operation rates of pure benzene and hydrogenated pure benzene [67]. - Downstream Inventory: The in - factory inventory of caprolactam is oscillating at a high level. The demand for pure benzene downstream is mainly for styrene (41%), caprolactam (18%), phenol (16%), aniline (13%), adipic acid (7%), and others (5%) [86][90] 3.5 Supply - Production Plan: In 2025, the total planned production capacity of styrene is 242, and the total planned production capacity of its downstream products is 419.8. There is a supply - demand gap throughout the year, especially in the fourth quarter, which may support prices [100]. - Production and Trade: Styrene plants have started to restart, and the production volume is at a high level in the same period. Charts show the daily production volume, export volume, weekly operation rate, and import volume of styrene [109][111] 3.6 Demand - Downstream Operation and Profit: The operation rates of EPS, PS, and ABS have rebounded with profit. Charts show the operation rates, production profits, and inventories of EPS, PS, and ABS. The downstream demand for styrene is mainly for PS (35%, used in food packaging, daily necessities, electronic casings, etc.), EPS (21%, used in building insulation materials, shock - proof packaging), and ABS (15%, used in household appliance casings, auto parts, toys) [119][123][127][137] - Home Appliance Production and Sales: The production of refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners has different trends. The production of washing machines has a moderately high year - on - year growth rate [138][146][150]