锌月报：国内延续累库，海外锌价偏强-20250905

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc ore and zinc ingot continue to be in a surplus situation, with inventory accumulation in both ore and ingot. The TC of zinc concentrate is rising, and the monthly spread of SHFE zinc is weakly operating. The domestic supply side remains loose, and the operating rates of downstream enterprises have not improved significantly. The LME market has experienced long - term destocking, resulting in low LME zinc warrants and an increase in the LME zinc monthly spread. The pattern of weak domestic and strong overseas markets has intensified, and the SHFE - LME ratio has accelerated its decline. Currently, there are high expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates, creating a positive atmosphere in the non - ferrous metals sector. From the perspective of capital positions, some institutional and foreign capital seats regard zinc as a short - allocation variety in non - ferrous metals, with a high consensus on shorting the variety. It is expected that the short - term downward space is limited, and it will show a low - level oscillation pattern [11]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment - Price Review: In August, the weighted price of SHFE zinc first rose and then fell, closing down 0.74% at 22,140 yuan/ton, with the total open interest slightly increasing to 223,700 lots. LME zinc 3M oscillated upward, closing up 1.63% at 2,814 dollars/ton, and the open interest slightly increased to 191,500 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot was 21,970 yuan/ton, with a Shanghai basis of - 65 yuan/ton, a Tianjin basis of - 75 yuan/ton, a Guangdong basis of - 65 yuan/ton, and a flat price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong [11]. - Domestic Structure: According to Shanghai Non - Ferrous Metals data, the domestic social inventory of zinc has increased to 148,900 tons. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory is 40,900 tons. The basis in the Shanghai area of the domestic market is - 65 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract is - 20 yuan/ton. - Overseas Structure: The LME zinc ingot inventory is 55,200 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants are 12,800 tons. The basis of the cash - 3S contract in the overseas market is 18.78 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread is 24.24 dollars/ton. - Cross - Market Structure: After excluding exchange rates, the SHFE - LME ratio on the disk is 1.088, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots is - 2,594.3 yuan/ton. - Industrial Data: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate is 3,900 yuan/metal ton, and the import TC index is 94 dollars/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate is 274,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate is 641,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts is 55.47%, with a raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 384,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy is 50.78%, with a raw material inventory of 11,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 9,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide is 51.69%, with a raw material inventory of 3,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 6,000 tons [11]. 3.2 Macro Analysis The report presents multiple charts related to the US fiscal and debt situation, the Fed's balance sheet, dollar liquidity, manufacturing PMIs of China and the US, and new and unfinished orders in the US manufacturing and non - ferrous metals manufacturing industries, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [14][16][19][20]. 3.3 Supply Analysis - Zinc Ore Supply: In July 2025, the domestic zinc ore output was 346,800 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 5.68% and a month - on - month change of 7.53%. From January to July, the cumulative zinc ore output was 2,080,500 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 2.27%. The net import of zinc ore in July was 501,400 dry tons, a year - on - year change of 37.8% and a month - on - month change of 52.0%. From January to July, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 3,034,800 dry tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 46.2%. The total domestic zinc ore supply in July was 572,400 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 7.7% and a month - on - month change of 21.5%. From January to July, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 3,446,200 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 12.5%. The port inventory of zinc concentrate is 274,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate is 641,000 physical tons. The domestic TC of zinc concentrate is 3,900 yuan/metal ton, and the import TC index is 94 dollars/dry ton [25][27][29]. - Zinc Ingot Supply: In August 2025, the zinc ingot output was 626,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 28.8% and a month - on - month change of 3.9%. From January to August, the cumulative zinc ingot output was 4,469,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.5%. In July, the net import of zinc ingots was 20,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 9.6% and a month - on - month change of - 46.8%. From January to July, the cumulative net import of zinc ingots was 216,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 15.1%. The total domestic zinc ingot supply in July was 623,100 tons, a year - on - year change of 22.6% and a month - on - month change of 0.0%. From January to July, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 4,059,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.4% [33][35]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts is 55.47%, with a raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 384,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy is 50.78%, with a raw material inventory of 11,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 9,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide is 51.69%, with a raw material inventory of 3,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 6,000 tons. In July 2025, the apparent demand for domestic zinc ingots was 595,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 7.0% and a month - on - month change of - 2.0%. From January to July, the cumulative apparent demand for domestic zinc ingots was 3,971,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.3% [39][41]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Inventory - Domestic Zinc Ingot: In July 2025, the supply - demand difference of domestic zinc ingots was a surplus of 27,200 tons. From January to July, the cumulative supply - demand difference of domestic zinc ingots was a surplus of 88,200 tons [52]. - Overseas Refined Zinc: In June 2025, the supply - demand difference of overseas refined zinc was a shortage of - 42,600 tons. From January to June, the cumulative supply - demand difference of overseas refined zinc was a surplus of 7,000 tons [55]. 3.6 Price Outlook - Domestic Structure: According to Shanghai Non - Ferrous Metals data, the domestic social inventory has increased to 148,900 tons. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory is 40,900 tons. The basis in the Shanghai area of the domestic market is - 65 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract is - 20 yuan/ton [60]. - Overseas Structure: The LME zinc ingot inventory is 55,200 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants are 12,800 tons. The basis of the cash - 3S contract in the overseas market is 18.78 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread is 24.24 dollars/ton [63]. - Cross - Market Structure: After excluding exchange rates, the SHFE - LME ratio on the disk is 1.088, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots is - 2,594.3 yuan/ton [66]. - Position Analysis: The net position of the top 20 holders of SHFE zinc has turned net short, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds has decreased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises has also decreased, indicating a bearish view from the position perspective [69].