碳酸锂月报:供需关系修复,锂价底部抬升-20250905
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-09-05 13:26
- Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since August, lithium carbonate contracts have been significantly affected by sentiment. After supply disruptions in lithium mines such as Jianxiawo, lithium prices soared, with the main contract once reaching the 90,000 yuan mark. Recently, funds have rationally returned to the fundamentals, sentiment has continuously cooled, and the market has adjusted weakly. [11] - As the lithium - battery industry enters the traditional peak season, downstream demand has been released. Domestic lithium mica production has declined, the supply - demand relationship of lithium carbonate has improved, and social inventories of lithium carbonate have continuously decreased. [11] - In the first week of September, the lithium - battery sector in the equity market performed strongly, and the optimistic sentiment may drive the lithium carbonate futures to stabilize and rebound. At the same time, the resource supply in regions such as Jiangxi, Qinghai, and Africa is unstable, and attention should be paid to the impact of industry news on the market. [11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Spot and Futures Market: On September 5, the MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate reported 73,657 yuan in the morning, down 4.44% week - on - week and up 5.5% compared to early August. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 74,000 yuan. On the same day, the closing price of LC2511 on the GZFE was 74,260 yuan, down 3.78% within the week. [12] - Supply: On September 5, SMM's weekly domestic lithium carbonate production was 19,419 tons, a 2% increase from the previous week. The estimated monthly production of lithium carbonate from lithium mica dropped to around 10,000 tons, basically in line with the expectation of large - mine shutdowns. The production of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene continued to reach new highs, compensating for the reduction in mica production. In August 2025, domestic lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, a 4.6% increase from the previous month and a 39.5% increase year - on - year. The cumulative output in the first eight months increased by 40.4% year - on - year. In July and August 2025, Chile's lithium carbonate export volumes were 20,900 tons and 16,900 tons respectively, with exports to China being 13,600 tons and 13,000 tons, a 13% year - on - year decrease and a 6.9% year - on - year increase respectively. [12] - Demand: The Passenger Car Association estimated that the wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles by domestic manufacturers in August were 1.3 million, a 24% year - on - year increase and a 10% month - on - month increase. From January to August this year, the cumulative wholesale sales were 8.93 million, a 34% year - on - year increase. The combined production of domestic lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials has remained at a high level since March. As the traditional peak season for lithium batteries approaches, the growth of lithium - battery demand has accelerated. In August, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 7.7% month - on - month, and it is expected to reach a new high in September. [12] - Inventory: On September 5, the weekly domestic lithium carbonate inventory was reported at 140,092 tons, a decrease of 1,044 tons (- 0.7%) from the previous week. On September 4, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the GZFE were 34,948 tons, a 20.7% increase from the previous week. The early industrial hedging products were accelerating into the warehouse. [12] - Cost: The ore price adjusted following the lithium salt price. On September 5, the SMM quoted the price of imported Australian SC6 lithium concentrate at 830 - 870 US dollars per ton, a 5.03% decrease from the previous week and a 14.09% increase compared to early August. The supply pressure of high - cost hard - rock mines in Africa has recently begun to ease. The lithium concentrate previously held back by Western Australian mining enterprises will be released, and it is expected that subsequent lithium ore imports will be significantly supplemented. [12] 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - The average discount price in the standard electric - carbon trading market of the exchange is about 50 yuan. The net short position of the main contract of lithium carbonate is about 100,000 lots. [23] - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,250 yuan. The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide is 800 yuan. In September, the lithium carbonate futures declined, while the spot price of lithium hydroxide adjusted with a lag, resulting in an inverted price difference. [26] 3.3 Supply Side - On September 5, SMM's weekly domestic lithium carbonate production was 19,419 tons, a 2% increase from the previous week. In August 2025, domestic lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, a 4.6% increase from the previous month, a 39.5% increase year - on - year, and a 40.4% cumulative year - on - year increase in the first eight months. [31] - In August, the production of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene was 53,330 tons, a 19.0% increase from the previous month, an 83.3% increase year - on - year, and a 71.1% cumulative year - on - year increase in the first eight months. The production of lithium carbonate from lithium mica was 13,700 tons, a 23.9% decrease from the previous month, and a 17.5% cumulative year - on - year increase in the first eight months. [34] - In August, the production of lithium carbonate from salt lakes decreased by 11.5% month - on - month to 10,920 tons, with a 10.8% cumulative year - on - year increase from January to August. Some salt lakes reduced production or shut down, and the production of lithium carbonate from salt lakes showed a year - on - year decline during the peak season. The production of lithium carbonate from the recycling end in August was 7,290 tons, a 14.3% month - on - month increase, and a 21.3% cumulative year - on - year increase from January to August. [37] - In July 2025, China imported 13,845 tons of lithium carbonate, a 21.8% month - on - month decrease and a 42.7% year - on - year decrease. Among them, 8,584 tons were imported from Chile and 3,950 tons from Argentina. From January to July, the total import volume of lithium carbonate in China was about 132,000 tons, a 0.8% year - on - year increase. In July 2025, Chile's lithium carbonate export volume was 20,900 tons, a 43% month - on - month increase and a 4% year - on - year increase. Among them, 13,600 tons were exported to China, a 33% month - on - month increase and a 13% year - on - year decrease. In August, Chile exported 16,903 tons of lithium carbonate, a 19.2% month - on - month decrease. Among them, 12,982 tons were exported to China, a 4.8% month - on - month decrease and a 6.9% year - on - year increase. [40] 3.4 Demand Side - The battery field dominates lithium demand. In 2024, its global consumption accounted for 87%. The main growth point of future lithium salt consumption still depends on the growth of the lithium - battery industry, while the traditional application fields have limited proportion and weak growth. The proportion of lithium used in fields such as ceramic glass, lubricants, flux powder, air - conditioning, and medicine is only 5%. [44] - In July 2025, the global sales volume of new - energy vehicles was about 1.6 million, with a 25.1% cumulative year - on - year increase from January to July. The Passenger Car Association estimated that the wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles by domestic manufacturers in August were 1.3 million, a 24% year - on - year increase and a 10% month - on - month increase. From January to August this year, the cumulative wholesale sales were 8.93 million, a 34% year - on - year increase. [47] - From January to July, the total sales volume of new - energy vehicles in Europe was 2.081 million, a 25.8% year - on - year increase. From January to July, the total sales volume of new - energy vehicles in the United States was 896,000, a 6.9% year - on - year increase. [50] - In July, the combined production of power and other batteries in China was 133.8 GWh, a 3.6% month - on - month increase and a 44.3% year - on - year increase. From January to July, the cumulative production of power and other batteries in China was 831.1 GWh, a 57.5% cumulative year - on - year increase. [53] - In July, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased by about 3.1% month - on - month. In August, the production of cathode materials increased by 7.7% month - on - month. [56] 3.5 Inventory - On September 5, the weekly domestic lithium carbonate inventory was reported at 140,092 tons, a decrease of 1,044 tons (- 0.7%) from the previous week. On September 4, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the GZFE were 34,948 tons, a 20.7% increase from the previous week. [63] - The inventory cycle of cathode materials is about one week. The inventory - to - sales ratio of power batteries is at a recent median, and the inventory of energy - storage batteries is at a recent low due to export rush. [66] 3.6 Cost Side - The ore price adjusted following the lithium salt price. On September 5, the SMM quoted the price of imported Australian SC6 lithium concentrate at 830 - 870 US dollars per ton, a 5.03% decrease from the previous week and a 14.09% increase compared to early August. [74] - In July, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 576,000 tons, a 4.8% year - on - year increase and a 34.7% month - on - month increase. From January to July, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 3.38 million tons, a 0.6% cumulative year - on - year increase. From January to July, the import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 7.3% year - on - year, and the import from Africa decreased by 13.7% year - on - year. The supply pressure of high - cost hard - rock mines in Africa has recently begun to ease. The lithium concentrate previously held back by Western Australian mining enterprises will be released, and it is expected that subsequent lithium ore imports will be significantly supplemented. [77]