Workflow
不锈钢月报:高波动低收益,市场驱动有限-20250905
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-09-05 13:27
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report Since this month, affected by factors such as steel mills controlling shipment volume, tight supply of hot - rolled resources, and political unrest in Indonesia, stainless - steel futures prices have fluctuated significantly. Overall, market sentiment is optimistic, raising expectations for stainless steel. However, actual consumption in August was still weak, and dealers' shipment pace was stable, suppressing further price increases. Under the current mature spot - futures business model, a slight deviation of the basis from reality can create arbitrage opportunities for traders. Therefore, before actual demand improves significantly, stainless - steel valuations are expected to remain low. Attention should be paid to the actual release of demand during the traditional peak season and the political stability in Indonesia. Currently, market driving factors are limited, and stainless - steel prices are expected to show a slightly stronger oscillating trend [11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Data: On September 5th, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was 13,150 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 945 yuan/nickel, a month - on - month increase of 0.53%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,200 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.08%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,915 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.51% [11][16]. - Supply: In August, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.4685 million tons. In July, the crude - steel output was 2.8241 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 47,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.48% from January to July. In July, the estimated crude - steel output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4039 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.56%; in August, the cold - rolled output of 300 - series was 793,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.38% [11][26][29]. - Demand: From January to July 2024, the domestic commercial housing sales area was 515.5977 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.00%; in July, the single - month commercial housing sales area was 57.0922 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.40%. In July, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 3%, 5%, 1.5%, and 2.4% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel processing industry in July was +16.3% [11][39][42]. - Inventory: This week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.083 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.81%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts this week was 99,700 tons, a decrease of 688 tons from last week. This week, the social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel were 193,900 tons, 654,500 tons, and 234,500 tons respectively, with the 300 - series inventory decreasing by 0.63% month - on - month. This week, the floating inventory of stainless steel was 42,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.30%, and the unloading volume was 48,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 44.78% [11][49][52]. - Cost: This week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 945 yuan/nickel, unchanged from last week. Ironworks in Fujian are currently losing 81 yuan/nickel [11][59]. 3.2 Spot - Futures Market - Price Changes: On September 5th, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was 13,150 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 945 yuan/nickel, a month - on - month increase of 0.53%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,200 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.08%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,915 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.51% [16]. - Market Quotes: The market quotation of Foshan Delong refers to a premium of about - 15 yuan (+35) over the main contract; the market quotation of Wuxi Hongwang refers to a premium of about 35 yuan (- 5) over the main contract. The open interest on the futures market was 267,609 lots, a month - on - month increase of 0.21% [19]. - Month - to - Month Spread: The spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 2 was reported at - 70 (+0), and the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 3 was reported at - 115 (+10) [22]. 3.3 Supply Side - Domestic Production: In August, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.4685 million tons. In July, the crude - steel output was 2.8241 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 47,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.48% from January to July. In July, the estimated crude - steel output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4039 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.56%; in August, the cold - rolled output of 300 - series was 793,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.38% [26][29]. - Indonesian Production and Imports: In July, the estimated monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia was 380,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.56%. In July, China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 46,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 46.09% [32]. - Export Situation: In July, the net export volume of stainless steel was 343,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 22.37% and a year - on - year increase of 20.57%. From January to July, the cumulative net export volume was 1.0809 million tons, a 65.78% increase compared to the same period last year [35]. 3.4 Demand Side - Real Estate: From January to July 2024, the domestic commercial housing sales area was 515.5977 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.00%; in July, the single - month commercial housing sales area was 57.0922 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.40% [39]. - Home Appliances: In July, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 3%, 5%, 1.5%, and 2.4% respectively [42]. - Fuel Processing Industry: The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel processing industry in July was +16.3% [42]. - Other Industries: In July, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 115,000 units, a month - on - month decrease of 16.06% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.54%. In July, the automobile sales volume was 2.5934 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 10.71% and a year - on - year increase of 14.66% [45]. 3.5 Inventory - Total Inventory: This week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.083 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.81%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts this week was 99,700 tons, a decrease of 688 tons from last week [49]. - Inventory by Series: This week, the social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel were 193,900 tons, 654,500 tons, and 234,500 tons respectively, with the 300 - series inventory decreasing by 0.63% month - on - month. This week, the floating inventory of stainless steel was 42,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.30%, and the unloading volume was 48,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 44.78% [52]. 3.6 Cost Side - Nickel Ore: In July, the nickel - ore import volume was 5.0058 million wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.44% and a year - on - year increase of 45.19%. Currently, the quoted price of nickel ore with 1.5% Ni is 56.0 US dollars per wet ton, and the port inventory is 12.5982 million wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.48% [56]. - Nickel Iron: This week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 945 yuan/nickel, unchanged from last week. Ironworks in Fujian are currently losing 81 yuan/nickel [59]. - Chromium - Iron Chain: This week, the quoted price of chrome ore was 56.5 yuan per dry ton, an increase of 0.5 yuan per dry ton compared to last week; the quoted price of high - carbon ferrochrome was 8,400 yuan per 50 - base ton, an increase of 200 yuan per 50 - base ton compared to last week. In July, the output of high - carbon ferrochrome was 801,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.38% [62]. - Production Profit: The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel - iron production line is - 535 yuan per ton, with a profit margin of - 3.91% [65].