Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fundamentally, the manufacturing PMI in August improved compared to the previous month but remained below the boom-bust line. Both supply and demand showed a month-on-month improvement, and the price level rebounded under the "anti-involution" policy. However, the export may face pressure in the future as the effect of pre-exporting weakens. In terms of funds, the central bank maintains an attitude of supporting funds, and it is generally expected that the funds will remain loose in the future. Looking ahead, with weak domestic demand recovery and the likelihood of continued loose funds, interest rates are expected to have downward room. However, in terms of rhythm, attention should be paid to the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds, and the bond market is expected to be in a short-term volatile pattern. The bond market should be considered for long positions on dips in the medium to long term [15]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Economic and Policy Environment: The manufacturing PMI data in August showed a slight overall improvement, with both supply and demand ends recovering. The "anti-involution" policy boosted price expectations, but the coordination between demand and production needs further observation. In terms of exports, although the import and export data in July exceeded expectations due to the pre-exporting effect, exports may face pressure in the future due to the overdraft of pre-exporting and the rising base in the second half of the year. Overseas, the market has strong expectations for a US interest rate cut in September, which is beneficial for financial market liquidity. On September 5, the central bank conducted a 10000 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation with a term of 3 months to maintain sufficient liquidity in the banking system [14]. - Liquidity: This week, the central bank conducted 10684 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with 22731 billion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 12047 billion yuan. The DR007 interest rate closed at 1.45% [15]. - Interest Rates: The latest 10Y Treasury yield closed at 1.80%, down 4.76BP week - on - week; the 30Y Treasury yield closed at 2.07%, down 6.85BP week - on - week. The latest 10Y US Treasury yield was 4.17%, down 6.00BP week - on - week [15]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to take long positions on dips for a single - sided strategy, with a profit - loss ratio of 3:1 and a recommended period of 6 months. The core driving logic is loose monetary policy and the difficulty of credit improvement [17]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - Contract Performance: The report presents the closing prices, annualized discounts, settlement prices, and net basis of T, TL, TF, TS contracts, as well as the closing prices and trading volumes of TS and TF, T and TL contracts, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [20][23][26][29][32][33]. 3. Main Economic Data Domestic Economy - GDP and PMI: In the second quarter of 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 5.4%, exceeding market expectations. The manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous value, and the service industry PMI was 50.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous value [38]. - Manufacturing PMI Sub - items: In August, both supply and demand in the manufacturing industry recovered. Industries such as pharmaceuticals and computer communication and electronic equipment had production and new order indices higher than the overall manufacturing PMI, while industries such as textile and clothing, wood processing and furniture, and chemical raw materials and chemicals were below the boom - bust line [44]. - Price Index: In July, the year - on - year CPI was 0.0%, the core CPI was up 0.8% year - on - year, and the PPI was down 3.6% year - on - year. The month - on - month CPI was 0.4%, the core CPI was 0.4%, and the PPI was - 0.2%. The increase in the month - on - month CPI was mainly driven by seasonal factors and the rise in consumer goods prices, while the year - on - year decline in PPI remained flat and the month - on - month decline narrowed [47]. - Export Data: In July, China's imports and exports recovered due to pre - exporting, with exports (in US dollars) increasing by 7.2% year - on - year and imports increasing by 4.1% year - on - year. Exports to the US decreased by 21.67% year - on - year, while exports to ASEAN maintained a high growth rate of 16.59% year - on - year [50]. - Industrial and Consumption Data: In July, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value was 5.7%, and the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.7%, both showing a slowdown [53]. - Investment and Real Estate Data: From January to July, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 1.6%, and the real estate investment growth rate was - 12.0%. In July, the month - on - month price of second - hand housing in 70 large and medium - sized cities was - 0.5%, and the year - on - year price was - 5.9%. The new construction area in July was 352060000 square meters, with a year - on - year decrease of 19.4%, and the new construction area under construction was 6387310000 square meters, with a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%. The completion data in July decreased by 29.46% year - on - year, and the new home sales data in 30 large - and medium - sized cities weakened [56][59][62]. Foreign Economy - US Economy: In the second quarter, the annualized US GDP at current prices was 30331 billion US dollars, with a real year - on - year growth rate of 1.99% and a quarter - on - quarter growth rate of 3.0%. In July, the unadjusted CPI in the US increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the seasonally adjusted CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month, and the PPI increased by 3.3% year - on - year. The durable goods orders in July were 3028 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year increase of 3.26%. The non - farm payrolls increased by 73000 in July, and the unemployment rate was 4.2%. In August, the ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 52 [65][68][71]. - European Economy: In the second quarter, the EU's GDP increased by 1.5% year - on - year and 0.2% quarter - on - quarter. In August, the preliminary value of the eurozone's CPI increased by 2.1% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, and the core CPI increased by 2.3% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month. The manufacturing PMI in August was 50.7, and the service industry PMI was 50.5 [71][74]. 4. Liquidity - Money Supply and Social Financing: In July, the growth rate of M1 was 5.6%, and the growth rate of M2 was 8.8%. The incremental social financing in July was 1.16 trillion yuan, with an increase of 3893 billion yuan year - on - year. The new RMB loans were nearly - 500 billion yuan, and social financing mainly came from the growth of government bonds. Both corporate and household credit weakened [79]. - MLF and Reverse Repurchase: In August, the MLF balance was 55500 billion yuan, with a net injection of 3000 billion yuan. This week, the central bank conducted 10684 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with 22731 billion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 12047 billion yuan, and the DR007 interest rate closed at 1.45% [85]. 5. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - Interest Rate Changes: The report provides the latest interest rates, daily, weekly, and monthly changes of various types of interest rates, including repurchase rates, Treasury bond yields, and US Treasury bond yields [88]. - Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Charts: The report presents charts of Treasury bond yields, bank - to - bank pledged repurchase rates, US Treasury bond yields, and exchange rates, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [92][95][96].
国债月报：债市或延续震荡-20250905
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-09-05 13:24