Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint - In August, the futures price of urea maintained a narrow - range oscillation. The domestic supply declined, and demand entered the off - season. The overall contradiction was not prominent, and demand was mainly supported by exports. The short - term fundamentals did not change significantly, and additional bullish factors were needed for the price to break out of the range. Currently, the market is characterized by low valuation and weak drivers, and the price is expected to remain range - bound. It is recommended to pay attention to long positions on dips [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: In August, the futures price of urea maintained a narrow - range oscillation. Domestic supply decreased with the monthly output of 5.93 million tons, a slight month - on - month decline but a year - on - year increase of over 11%. The daily output dropped to around 182,000 tons, reducing supply pressure. Exports continued to advance, and port inventories increased significantly, becoming the main demand support. The compound fertilizer market was weak, with the start - up rate peaking and then declining. Domestic agricultural demand entered the off - season [12]. - Fundamentals: Coal - based production profits were at a low level, and cost support would gradually strengthen. The basis and the 1 - 5 spread showed slight signs of stabilization. Export profits were high, and domestic prices were relatively undervalued. The price ratio with related varieties was at a medium - low level, indicating that the valuation of urea was not high. In August, port inventories increased by over 50,000 tons, and enterprise inventories increased by over 200,000 tons, with the current inventory at 1.095 million tons, which was at a high level compared to the same period [12]. - Market Logic: The market was characterized by low valuation and weak drivers, lacking more positive factors. The price was expected to remain range - bound, with limited upside and downside space [12]. - Strategy: It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [12]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Price Data: For the 09 contract, the price at the end of the month was 1,679, a decrease of 35 from the beginning of the month; for the 01 contract, it was 1,746, an increase of 10; for the 05 contract, it was 1,791, an increase of 16. The basis in Shandong and Henan decreased, and the 9 - 1, 1 - 5, and 5 - 9 spreads also changed [13]. - Charts: There are charts showing the 01 basis seasonality, Shandong urea spot market price, urea 1 - 5 spread, and urea term structure [22][24]. 3. Profit and Inventory - Production Profit: Enterprise profits were at a low level compared to the same period. The fixed - bed, water - coal - slurry, and gas - based production profits are presented in relevant charts [30]. - Inventory: In August, enterprise inventories increased by over 200,000 tons to 1.095 million tons, and port inventories increased by over 50,000 tons. There are charts showing urea enterprise inventories, port inventories, and warehouse receipts [12][31]. 4. Supply Side - Urea Capacity: There are plans for new urea production capacity from multiple enterprises in 2024 - 2025, such as Anhui Quansheng Chemical, Henan Jinkai Yanhua, etc. [38]. - Urea Start - up: The start - up rate declined, reducing supply pressure. There were many device overhauls in August and September, including both planned and unplanned overhauls due to various reasons such as faults, routine maintenance, and policies [40][44]. 5. Demand Side - Consumption: The report presents charts on monthly consumption and downstream demand proportion [50]. - Compound Fertilizer: The start - up rate of compound fertilizer was weak and began to decline after peaking. The production profit and the price ratio between urea and compound fertilizer are shown in relevant charts [52][53]. - Nitrogen Source Price Ratio: The price ratios between urea and synthetic ammonia, ammonium sulfate, ammonium chloride, and monoammonium phosphate are presented in charts [56]. - Melamine: The start - up rate, profit, and export volume of melamine are shown in relevant charts [58][61]. - Terminal Demand: The export volume of plywood, housing construction data (such as new construction area, completion area, and sales area), and external market prices are presented in charts. Urea exports had high profits, and there are charts on export volume, export regions, and export profit [66][77]. 6. Option - Related - Urea Options: There are charts showing the open interest, trading volume, open interest PCR, trading volume PCR, volatility, and the relationship with the futures price of urea options [90][98]. 7. Industry Structure Diagram - Urea Industry Chain: There are charts showing the urea industry chain, research framework analysis mind - map, and industry chain characteristics. The report also provides an overview of the seasonal fertilizer demand of domestic and international crops [101][106][109].
尿素月报：矛盾不突出，价格维持区间运行-20250905
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-09-05 13:30