鸡蛋月报：反弹抛空-20250905

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Rebound and Short" investment rating for the egg industry, suggesting selling on price rebounds [11][12][13] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, due to pre - holiday stocking in early September, the supply - demand relationship may tighten slightly, and egg prices are expected to rise, but the increase is limited due to large supply and cold - storage egg release. After mid - September, as stocking ends, the supply - demand contradiction will expand, and egg prices will decline. The futures market may pre - realize the peak - season price increase, so the "Rebound and Short" strategy is maintained [11] - The overall egg market shows high - level decline and oscillation. Newly - opened production and inventory are increasing, but the replenishment volume is decreasing, and old - hen culling is increasing [11][20][33] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - Spot Market: Since August, domestic egg prices have shown high - level decline and oscillation, weaker than expected. At the end of the month, prices rose slightly due to stocking for the start of school. In early September, prices may rise, but the increase is limited. After mid - September, prices will fall [11][20] - Replenishment and Culling: In August, the national replenishment volume dropped to 79.62 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. Old - hen culling increased significantly, and the chicken age dropped to 495 days [11][33][36] - Inventory and Trend: As of the end of August, the inventory of laying hens was 1.365 billion, higher than expected. It is expected to peak at 1.368 billion in November, indicating an overall supply surplus in the future [11][38][41] - Demand: After the plum - rain season, inventory consumption improved. With pre - holiday stocking for the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, egg consumption is expected to recover [11][46] - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, short contracts 10 and 11 on rebounds, with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1 and a recommended cycle of 1 month. For arbitrage, consider reverse arbitrage opportunities [13] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Spot Price Trend: Egg prices have been oscillating after a high - level decline. Specific prices in different regions have different changes. In early September, prices may rise slightly, but the increase is limited [20] - Basis and Spread: In the short - term, the spot is strong, and near - month contracts are relatively strong. In the future, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities in the spread [23] - Culled Chicken Price: As the peak season for egg prices is not prosperous, the culling of old hens has increased, and the price of culled chickens has dropped significantly [26] 3.3 Supply Side - Egg - Laying Hen Replenishment: In August, due to low egg prices and breeding losses, the national replenishment volume decreased to 79.62 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.4% [33] - Culled Chicken Slaughter: In August, due to the under - performance of the egg - price peak season and seasonal factors, the culling of old hens increased significantly, and the chicken age dropped to 495 days [36] - Inventory and Trend: As of the end of August, the inventory of laying hens was 1.365 billion, higher than expected. It is expected to continue to increase in the future, indicating an overall supply surplus [38][41] 3.4 Demand Side - After the plum - rain season, inventory consumption improved. With pre - holiday stocking for the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, egg consumption is expected to gradually get out of the off - season shadow and reach a consumption peak in the second half of the year [46] 3.5 Cost and Profit - The cost has increased slightly, but it is still low year - on - year. The profit is at a seasonally low level [51] 3.6 Inventory Side - With the start of spot consumption, inventory pressure has eased, showing a seasonal downward trend, but it is still relatively high year - on - year [56]