钢材月报：宏观宽松预期升温，钢材供需错配压力加大-20250905

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August 2025, the average profitability rate of steel mills continued to rise, but the long - process profit of rebar in East China decreased, and the EAF profit remained weak. The supply of rebar increased slightly, while the demand was weak, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The demand for hot - rolled coils was also weak, and although the output decreased slightly, the inventory also increased significantly [11]. - The statement by Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting in August released a signal that the world's major economies may enter an interest - rate easing cycle, which helps boost the sentiment of steel and metal prices in the short term and raises the market's expectation for subsequent domestic demand recovery. However, the current demand has not shown signs of transitioning to the peak season, and the overall demand structure remains weak. After the September 3rd military parade, steel mills have resumed production, and if demand does not improve synchronously, the risk of significant steel inventory accumulation will increase [11]. - The overall steel export performance is weak, with a significant increase in exports to Asia, Africa, and Latin America, while other major regions remain sluggish [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Valuation: In August 2025, the average profitability rate of steel mills was 65.9%. The long - process profit of rebar in East China shrank to 57 yuan/ton, and the valley - electricity profit was about - 18 yuan/ton. The long - process profit declined significantly, and the EAF profit remained weak [11]. - Supply: In August 2025, the rebar output was 10.879 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.3238 million tons; the hot - rolled coil output was 16.0325 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.5955 million tons. The daily average pig iron output remained at 2.4051 million tons. The output of blast furnaces and EAFs increased slightly, and the supply pressure of rebar further increased. The hot - rolled coil output decreased slightly month - on - month, and the supply pressure was relieved [11]. - Demand: In August 2025, the apparent consumption of rebar was 10.0315 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.169 million tons. The rebar demand remained weak and showed no signs of stabilization approaching the traditional peak season. The apparent consumption of hot - rolled coils was 15.8295 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.509 million tons. The hot - rolled coil demand fluctuated, showing a neutral - to - weak performance. Affected by the continuous decline in exports and the weakening of terminal industries such as home appliances, although the demand has certain resilience, it lacks bright spots [11]. - Inventory: Both rebar and hot - rolled coils have seen inventory accumulation. Currently, the steel mill output is relatively high, and the demand is insufficient. Rebar has accumulated inventory for six consecutive weeks, and hot - rolled coils for seven consecutive weeks, with significant inventory pressure [11]. - Conclusion: Macroscopically, the signal of a possible interest - rate easing cycle boosts the sentiment of steel and metal prices in the short term. Fundamentally, the demand for rebar and plates in August was weak, and inventory accumulated rapidly. As the traditional peak season approaches, if demand does not improve synchronously, the risk of significant steel inventory accumulation will increase. Attention should be paid to export progress, the implementation of production - restriction policies, and macro - level trends such as the September interest - rate meeting and the Fourth Plenary Session [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market The report presents a series of charts related to the futures and spot prices, price differences, and basis of rebar, hot - rolled coils, cold - rolled coils, and other steel products, as well as the price differences between different regions and different contracts, providing a comprehensive picture of the steel futures and spot market price trends [25][27][30]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Profit: The report shows the disk profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils, as well as the gross profit per ton of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils, reflecting the profit situation of different steel products [79][81]. - Inventory: It presents the inventory data of rebar and hot - rolled coils, including total inventory, social inventory, and steel mill inventory, indicating the current inventory pressure in the steel market [90][103]. 3.4 Cost End The report includes charts on the cost - related indicators of steel, such as the ratio of rebar to iron ore futures, the ratio of rebar to coke futures, the price of billets, scrap steel prices, and scrap steel consumption, which help analyze the cost structure of steel production [109][115][121]. 3.5 Supply End - Rebar: It shows the output, output cumulative year - on - year growth rate, and capacity utilization rate of rebar, reflecting the supply situation of rebar [131][133]. - Hot - Rolled Coils: It presents the actual output, output cumulative year - on - year growth rate, and capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils, showing the supply situation of hot - rolled coils [137][139]. 3.6 Demand and Import - Export - Domestic Demand: The report shows the apparent consumption and cumulative year - on - year growth rate of rebar and hot - rolled coils, as well as the production and export volume of home appliances such as refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners, reflecting the domestic demand for steel [143][146][147]. - Import - Export: It presents the monthly import and export volume of steel, rebar, and plates, indicating the import - export situation of the steel industry [159][161][164].