铂族金属月报：铂金价格表现将强于钯金-20250905

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The expected monetary policy of the Federal Reserve will cause the price performance of platinum, which has stronger financial attributes, to outperform palladium. The speech at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting set the tone for an interest - rate cut in the September policy meeting. Considering the weakening of the US labor market and the Fed's stance, there may be more than three interest - rate cuts in the remaining policy meetings of this year. In this context, platinum prices are expected to continue to perform better than palladium, and the strategy suggests buying platinum on dips [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Market Outlook - Platinum Key Data: The closing price of the active NYMEX platinum contract rose 2.85% to $1380.6 per ounce, the five - day average trading volume increased 69.15%, the open interest of the main contract rose 0.86%, the NYMEX platinum inventory increased 1.35%, the CFTC managed - fund net long position increased by 2504 lots, the CFTC commercial net short position increased by 1080 lots, and the platinum ETF holdings decreased 0.22% [9]. - Palladium Key Data: The closing price of the active NYMEX palladium contract rose 1.15% to $1141.5 per ounce, the five - day average trading volume decreased 2.60%, the open interest of the main contract rose 3.25%, the inventory increased 4.72%, the CFTC managed - fund net short position increased by 759 lots, the CFTC commercial net short position decreased by 92 lots, and the palladium ETF holdings increased 2.22% [9]. - Technical Analysis: The NYMEX platinum main - contract price has support near the ascending - trend baseline and has room for further rebound. The NYMEX palladium main - contract price has stabilized at around $1100 per ounce but is expected to face significant resistance when rebounding to $1255 per ounce [13][16]. 3.2 Market Review - Platinum Price: The NYMEX platinum main - contract price rose 2.85% to $1380.6 per ounce, and the open interest decreased by 580 lots to 85575 lots. The Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum spot price rose 5.75% to 332.65 yuan/gram as of September 4. The one - month implied lease rate of platinum dropped to 15.23%, indicating a significant relief in the overseas spot shortage. The NYMEX platinum managed - fund net long position increased by 2504 lots to 14731 lots as of August 26 [21][27][31]. - Palladium Price: The NYMEX palladium main - contract price fell 6.66% to $1141.5 per ounce, and the open interest decreased by 1590 lots to 18920 lots. The NYMEX palladium managed - fund net short position was 6614 lots as of August 26 [24][37]. 3.3 Inventory and ETF Holdings Changes - Platinum: The total platinum ETF holdings were 74.25 tons as of September 4. The CME platinum inventory increased by 0.22 tons to 16.49 tons this week [48][55]. - Palladium: The total palladium ETF holdings were 13.5 tons as of September 4. The CME palladium inventory was 4346.17 kilograms as of September 4, an increase of 2401.25 kilograms this week [51][60]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - Platinum Supply: The total platinum production of the top 15 mines in 2025 is expected to be 127.47 tons, a 1.9% decrease from 2024, indicating a contraction in mine - end supply this year [66]. - Palladium Supply: The total palladium production of the top 15 mines in 2025 is expected to be 165.78 tons, a 0.86% decrease from 2024, showing a slight contraction in mine - end supply [69]. - Chinese Imports: China's platinum imports in July were 7.57 tons, a decline from June, while palladium imports in July were 3.24 tons, an increase from June [72][75]. - Automobile Production: Data on automobile production in China, Japan, Germany, and the US are presented, but no specific conclusions about supply - demand relationships are drawn from these data in the text [76][79][82]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The global platinum market is expected to have a supply - demand deficit of 14.29 tons in 2025, and the global palladium market is expected to have a supply - demand surplus of 3.50 tons in 2025 [86][87]. 3.5 Monthly Spread and Cross - Market Spread - NYMEX Platinum Monthly Spread: Relevant spread data charts are presented, but no specific numerical analysis or conclusions are provided in the text [90]. - NYMEX Palladium Monthly Spread: Relevant spread data charts are presented, but no specific numerical analysis or conclusions are provided in the text [98]. - London Spot and NYMEX Spread: Charts of the spread between London spot platinum and NYMEX platinum, and London spot palladium and NYMEX palladium are presented, but no specific numerical analysis or conclusions are provided in the text [105].