贵金属月报：逢低做多白银-20250905

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests maintaining a "buy on dips" approach for the precious metals sector, with a focus on the upward potential of silver prices [11]. Core Viewpoints - Influenced by the Fed's monetary policy expectations and potential tariff risks from the Trump administration, precious metal prices showed strong performance this month. COMEX gold and silver prices outperformed domestic prices. The Fed is likely to adopt a dovish monetary policy stance in the September FOMC meeting and cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Silver prices are expected to have stronger upward momentum compared to gold as the Fed's monetary policy turns accommodative [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Market Outlook - Monthly Summary: Affected by the Fed's monetary policy expectations and potential tariff risks from the Trump administration, precious metal prices were strong this month. COMEX gold prices rose 5.38% to $3,602.4 per ounce, hitting a new record high. COMEX silver prices broke through the $40 per ounce mark, rising 10.51% to $41.32 per ounce. Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting signaled the start of a new interest - rate cut cycle. Trump's team's actions have undermined the Fed's independence, and the Fed is likely to cut rates by 25 basis points in September [11]. - Market Outlook: As the Fed's monetary policy becomes more accommodative, silver prices will have stronger upward drivers than gold. The current gold - to - silver ratio is 87, significantly higher than the historical average of 62.1 since 1971. The market has almost fully priced in a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September and a 55% probability of a further 25 - basis - point cut in October. The Fed may cut rates more than the market expects in the remaining FOMC meetings this year. The recommended trading range for the SHFE gold main contract is 801 - 840 yuan per gram, and for the SHFE silver main contract is 9,526 - 11,000 yuan per kilogram [11]. 2. Market Review - Price Performance: As of September 4, COMEX gold prices rose 5.38% to $3,602.4 per ounce, and SHFE gold prices rose 3.56% to 812.98 yuan per gram. COMEX silver prices rose 10.51% to $41.32 per ounce, and SHFE silver main contract prices rose 5.56% to 9,773 yuan per kilogram [11][29]. - Position and Volume: Domestic gold positions performed better than foreign ones this month. SHFE gold total positions increased by 0.44% to 439,900 lots, while COMEX gold total positions decreased by 0.34% to 443,800 lots. Domestic silver positions also outperformed foreign ones. SHFE silver total positions increased by 5.42% to 838,100 lots, while COMEX silver total positions decreased by 6.87% to 158,600 lots. As of the latest report date, COMEX gold and silver managed - fund net positions both increased [32][35][37]. - ETF Holdings: The total holdings of gold ETFs within the Reuters statistical scope reached 2,224.4 tons as of September 4, and the total holdings of foreign silver ETFs were 27,665.94 tons. The total holdings of gold and silver ETFs continued to rise [40]. 3. Interest Rates and Liquidity - Interest Rates and Inflation Expectations: The report presents various interest - rate charts, including the spread between 10 - year and 2 - year U.S. Treasury bonds, short - term Treasury yields, the federal funds rate, and inflation expectations [51][54]. - Fed's Balance Sheet: The Fed's total assets decreased by $38.772 billion this month. The Treasury's TGA account balance increased, the deposit reserve scale declined, and the U.S. dollar liquidity tightened [56][59]. 4. Macroeconomic Data - CPI and PCE: In July, the U.S. CPI was 2.7% year - on - year, lower than the expected 2.8% and in line with the previous value. The core CPI was 3.1% year - on - year, higher than the expected 3% and the previous value of 2.9% [64]. - Employment: As of the week ending August 30, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. was 237,000, higher than the expected 230,000 and the previous value of 229,000 [67]. - PMI and PPI: In August, the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, lower than the expected 49 and below the boom - bust line. The ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 52, higher than the expected and previous value of 50.1 and above the boom - bust line [70]. - New Housing Data: In July, the annualized total of new housing starts in the U.S. was 1.428 million, significantly higher than the expected 1.29 million and the previous value of 1.358 million. The annualized total of building permits was 1.354 million, lower than the expected 1.386 million and the previous value of 1.393 million [73]. 5. Precious Metal Spreads - Gold Basis: The foreign gold basis (London spot gold - COMEX gold) increased, while the domestic gold basis (AuT + D - SHFE gold) decreased [12]. - Silver Basis: The foreign silver basis (London spot silver - COMEX silver) decreased, while the domestic silver basis (AgT + D - SHFE silver) increased [12]. 6. Precious Metal Inventories - Silver Inventories: The report shows various silver inventory charts, including the combined inventory of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, and COMEX, as well as the inventories of SHFE, SGE, COMEX, and LBMA [90][92]. - Gold Inventories: The report presents charts of COMEX and LBMA gold inventories [93].