锰硅月报：黑色板块进入检验旺季需求成色交易，铁合金价格跟随板块波动-20250905

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The trading focus of the black sector in the near future (before mid - October) will be on the verification of real - end demand. There is a risk of a phased downward correction in demand, and peak - season demand may not match the current high supply, which will put pressure on prices and suppress the overall price of the black sector [15][96]. - The "anti - involution" in the commodities market is more of a rebound due to emotional fluctuations after prices have fallen to a phased low. Whether it can develop a second - stage market similar to the supply - side structural reform depends on the actual implementation and effects of the "anti - involution" policy [15][96]. - Both manganese silicon and silicon iron are likely to follow the sentiment of the black sector, especially the situation of coking coal, and their operability is relatively low [15][96]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Manganese Silicon 3.1.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Price: Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot was 5600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from last week and 300 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; the futures main contract (SM601) closed at 5730 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan/ton from last week and 306 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month. The basis was 60 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton from last week, with a basis rate of 1.04%, at a neutral level [14][20]. - Profit: The estimated immediate profit of manganese silicon remained low. In Inner Mongolia, it was - 350 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from last week and 13 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; in Ningxia, - 490 yuan/ton, down 83 yuan/ton from last week and 173 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; in Guangxi, - 681 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan/ton from last week and 150 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month [14][25]. - Cost: The estimated immediate cost of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was 6030 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton from last week and 27 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; in Ningxia, 5990 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton from last week and 27 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; in Guangxi, 6361 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton from last week and up 30 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month [14][30]. - Supply: The weekly output of manganese silicon was 21.28 tons, down 0.06 tons from last week. The cumulative weekly output decreased by about 2.68% compared with the same period last year. In August 2025, the output was 90.93 tons, up 8.96 tons from the previous month, and the cumulative output from January to August decreased by 26.28 tons or 3.82% year - on - year [14][44]. - Demand: The weekly output of rebar was 218.68 tons, down 1.88 tons from last week, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of about 0.43%. The daily average pig iron output was 228.84 tons, down 11.29 tons from last week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 3.44% [14][58]. - Inventory: The estimated explicit inventory of manganese silicon was 48.69 tons, down 0.82 tons from last week, continuing to decline but still at a high level compared with the same period [14][69]. - Strategy: It is recommended that speculative positions mainly wait and see. Pay attention to the pressure levels of 5900 - 6000 yuan/ton and the support level around 5600 yuan/ton [15][78]. 3.1.2 Futures and Spot Market - Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot was 5600 yuan/ton, the futures main contract (SM601) closed at 5730 yuan/ton, the basis was 60 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 1.04%, at a neutral level [20]. 3.1.3 Profit and Cost - Profit: The estimated immediate profit of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi all decreased compared with last week and the beginning of last month [25]. - Cost: The prices of manganese ore and some raw materials changed. The estimated immediate cost of manganese silicon in main production areas had different changes [27][30]. 3.1.4 Supply and Demand - Supply: The weekly and monthly output of manganese silicon had different trends, with a year - on - year decrease in cumulative output from January to August [44]. - Demand: The weekly output of rebar decreased, and the daily average pig iron output decreased compared with last week but increased year - on - year. The steel mill's profitability decreased by 2.6 pct to 61.04% [58][61][62]. 3.1.5 Inventory - The explicit inventory of manganese silicon continued to decline, the inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased, and the average available days of steel mill inventory increased slightly but were still at a low historical level [69][72][75]. 3.1.6 Graphical Trend - In August, the manganese silicon futures price first rebounded and then declined. Last week, it rebounded after reaching the support level. It is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern [78]. 3.2 Silicon Iron 3.2.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Price: Tianjin 72 silicon iron spot was 5650 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from last week and 250 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; the futures main contract (SF511) closed at 5496 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from last week and 338 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month. The basis was 154 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from last week, with a basis rate of 2.73%, at a relatively high level [95][101]. - Profit: The estimated immediate profit of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Qinghai all decreased compared with last week and the beginning of last month [95][106]. - Cost: The estimated production cost in main production areas was basically stable compared with last week [95][112]. - Supply: The weekly output of silicon iron was 11.5 tons, up 0.19 tons from last week. The cumulative weekly output increased by about 1.22% compared with the same period last year. In August 2025, the output was 49.33 tons, up 4.66 tons from the previous month, and the cumulative output from January to August increased by 2.8 tons or 0.78% year - on - year [95][117]. - Demand: The daily average pig iron output was 228.84 tons, down 11.29 tons from last week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 3.44%. The cumulative output of metallic magnesium from January to August decreased by 3.31 tons or 5.73% year - on - year. The cumulative export of silicon iron from January to July decreased by 1.22 tons or 4.93% year - on - year [95][126][129]. - Inventory: The estimated explicit inventory of silicon iron was 16.78 tons, down 0.16 tons from last week, remaining at a high level compared with the same period [95][140]. - Strategy: It is recommended that speculative positions mainly wait and see. Pay attention to the pressure levels of 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton and the support levels of 5400 - 5450 yuan/ton [96][149]. 3.2.2 Futures and Spot Market - Tianjin 72 silicon iron spot was 5650 yuan/ton, the futures main contract (SF511) closed at 5496 yuan/ton, the basis was 154 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 2.73%, at a relatively high level [101]. 3.2.3 Profit and Cost - Profit: The estimated immediate profit of silicon iron in main production areas decreased compared with last week and the beginning of last month [106]. - Cost: The prices of some raw materials were stable, and the estimated production cost in main production areas was basically stable compared with last week [109][112]. 3.2.4 Supply and Demand - Supply: The weekly and monthly output of silicon iron increased, with a year - on - year increase in cumulative output from January to August [117]. - Demand: The demand from the steel and non - steel sectors had different trends. The daily average pig iron output decreased compared with last week but increased year - on - year. The output of metallic magnesium and silicon iron exports decreased year - on - year [126][129][132]. 3.2.5 Inventory - The explicit inventory of silicon iron continued to decline, and the average available days of steel mill inventory increased slightly but were still at a low level compared with the same period [140][143]. 3.2.6 Graphical Trend - In August, the silicon iron futures price first rebounded and then declined. Last week, it rebounded after reaching the support level. It is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern [149].