生猪月报：反弹后短空思路-20250905

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The theoretical and planned slaughter volume is large, and the supply in September remains bearish. However, potential supporting factors such as consumption, weight gain, and state purchases are also accumulating. Spot prices are likely to fluctuate within a narrow range, lacking the basis for significant increases or decreases. - The market has already priced in the reality of an oversupply of pigs. The futures market, especially the near - term contracts, has been falling and is at a discount to the spot market. Over - shorting is not cost - effective. The strategy should focus on potential low - level rebounds due to factors like consumption and short - selling opportunities after the rebound. The reverse spread strategy for far - term contracts continues [11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Spot Market: Since August, domestic pig prices have mainly fluctuated downward with a small range. The planned monthly slaughter volume was high, slaughter volume was significantly large, the average weight of group - farmed pigs for sale continued to decline, the number of pigs sold by散户 increased, and the price difference between fat and standard pigs remained high. In September, the theoretical and planned slaughter volume remains high, but factors such as post - cooling pig retention, increased demand in cool weather, state purchases, and festivals may limit price drops. Pig prices are expected to fall first and then stabilize, with a slight decline overall [11][22]. - Supply Side: In July, the official sow inventory was 40.42 million, a slight monthly decrease of 10,000, still 3.6% higher than the normal level. The continuous increase in sow production capacity since last year may lead to a weaker fundamental situation in 2025 than in 2024. There is a strong expectation of policy - driven capacity reduction, which may improve next year's supply. From the piglet data, the basic supply from September to November will increase significantly, but the continuous weight reduction by group farms from June to August has advanced some supply, which may partially offset the supply pressure. Recently, the slaughter volume has been increasing month - on - month, and the weight of large - scale farms has been decreasing [11]. - Demand Side: The start of school in early September, temperature drops in the middle and late September, and stocking for the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day may lead to marginal improvement in demand. However, demand will enter a slump after the National Day until the temperature drops and the Spring Festival approaches [11]. - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and short - sell contracts 11 and 01 after a rebound. For arbitrage, a 3 - 5 reverse spread is recommended with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1 for a 2 - month period, driven by policies, weight, basic supply, and the fat - standard price difference [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Spot Price Trend: Since August, domestic pig prices have fluctuated downward. In September, prices are expected to fall first and then stabilize with a slight decline [22]. - Basis and Spread Trend: The futures market has priced in the pessimistic outlook in advance, and the basis and monthly spreads have fluctuated within a narrow range [25]. 3. Supply Side - Reproductive Sows: In July, the official sow inventory was 40.42 million, slightly down from the previous month, still 3.6% higher than the normal level. There is a strong expectation of policy - driven capacity reduction, but more evidence is needed to determine if capacity reduction is effective [33]. - Inventory and Slaughter: From the piglet data, the basic supply from September to November will increase significantly, but the continuous weight reduction by group farms from June to August has advanced some supply, which may partially offset the supply pressure. Recently, the slaughter volume has been increasing month - on - month, and the weight of large - scale farms has been decreasing [42][49]. - Import and Pig Feed: No specific analysis conclusions are provided in the text, only relevant data charts are presented [50]. 4. Demand Side - Slaughter Volume and Related Indicators: The start of school in early September, temperature drops in the middle and late September, and stocking for the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day may lead to marginal improvement in demand. However, demand will enter a slump after the National Day until the temperature drops and the Spring Festival approaches [58]. 5. Cost and Profit - Cost and Breeding Profit: Due to factors such as feed cost and efficiency improvement, the cost has been continuously declining. Despite the weak pig prices compared to the same period in previous years, large - scale losses have not occurred because of the low cost [69]. 6. Inventory Side - Frozen Product Inventory: The frozen product inventory is slowly increasing [74].