点石成金：短期宏观不确定性扰动，股指由流畅上行到震荡上行

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - Short - term macro uncertainties are rising, and the stock index may shift from smooth upward movement to volatile upward movement. The market style temporarily maintains an overweight on the technology growth sector, while also paying attention to opportunities in the consumer and cyclical style leading sectors [4]. 3) Summary by Related Content Domestic Macroeconomic Situation - Financially, credit factors are steadily recovering, and the growth rate of securities net investment - type assets has been rising since hitting the bottom in July last year, which supports the equity market in the medium term. The implementation of the long - cycle assessment mechanism for insurance funds in July helps improve the investment enthusiasm of insurance funds and the stability of the capital market. Since August, the capital side has been positive, and the return of various types of funds may continue [2]. - The current inventory cycle in China is at a low level but lacks driving factors. The real - estate short - cycle indicators are still weak, and the inventory cycle is expected to oscillate at a low level waiting for drivers. The implementation of anti - involution and domestic demand expansion policies is a key point [2]. Overseas Macroeconomic Situation - The game between Trump and the Federal Reserve has intensified, increasing the uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut path. Although it is currently in a stable period for Sino - US risk management, most positive factors have been priced in, so more attention should be paid to risks. The US may need to refund billions of dollars in tariffs, which will worsen its fiscal situation. Trump will appeal the ruling, and the follow - up development is worth watching [3]. - After the global financial conditions reached a high, there have been small fluctuations in US dollar liquidity in recent days, and the long - term bond yields in developed markets have risen significantly [3]. Market Structure and Allocation - In terms of valuation, there is a structural differentiation in the market. The trading congestion of technology stocks is relatively high in the short term, while the valuation of the consumer sector is relatively low. Macro - liquidity is concentrated in the financial market and has not effectively reached the real economy. Attention should be paid to policy support for the real economy and the matching of valuation and corporate earnings [4]. - With the entry of incremental funds and the position - adjustment behavior of on - market funds, the previous dominant style may be further exaggerated. The market style temporarily maintains an overweight on the technology growth sector and also focuses on opportunities in the consumer and cyclical style leading sectors [4]. Market Performance on a Specific Date - On September 4, the market weakened unilaterally throughout the day. The ChiNext Index fell more than 5% during the session, and the STAR 50 Index closed down more than 6%. The large - consumer sector strengthened against the trend, while the new - energy industry chain rose and then fell, and sectors such as the semiconductor industry chain, AI hardware, and GPU concepts回调 significantly [1].