国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250905

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides trend outlooks for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, etc., on September 5, 2025. Each commodity has its own unique market situation and influencing factors, such as supply - demand relationships, macro - economic data, and policy changes [3][5]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold: Market sentiment is cooling [3][6]. - Silver: In a state of oscillatory adjustment [3][6]. Base Metals - Copper: Expectations of Fed rate cuts limit price declines. Macro data like weak JOLTS job - vacancy data have strengthened rate - cut expectations, and some copper mines have production - related news [11][13]. - Zinc: Inventory accumulation continues, and the trend is bearish with a trend strength of - 1 [3][14][16]. - Lead: Reductions in both domestic and overseas inventories support prices [3][17]. - Tin: Moving within a range, with a trend strength of - 1 [3][19][23]. - Aluminum: In a range - bound oscillation. Alumina is in a weakening trend, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [3][24][26]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Nickel has a narrow - range oscillation based on fundamentals, affected by news - driven sentiment. Stainless - steel prices are in a narrow - range oscillation, both with a trend strength of 0 [3][28][33]. - Carbonate Lithium: Output is increasing, and the price is in a weakening trend with a trend strength of - 1 [3][34][36]. Energy and Chemicals - Industrial Silicon: The recommended strategy is to short at high prices. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to policy - related information. Industrial silicon has a trend strength of 0, and polysilicon has a strength of 1 [3][38][40]. - Iron Ore: Due to the transfer of profits from carbon elements, the price is oscillating at a high level with a trend strength of - 1 [3][41]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Both are in a wide - range oscillation [3][43][44]. - Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Ferroalloy: Both are in a wide - range oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [3][48][50]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Coke is in a weak oscillation due to downward - revised cost expectations. Coking coal has an increasing expectation of supply growth and a valuation correction, both with a trend strength of 0 [3][51]. - Log: In an oscillatory and repeated state with a trend strength of 0 [3][53][56]. - Paraxylene: Cost has collapsed, and the unilateral trend is weakening. PTA is recommended for positive monthly - spread arbitrage, and MEG has a weak unilateral trend [3][57]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil and Soybean Oil: Palm oil lacks continuous driving forces and is waiting for a correction. Soybean oil is in an oscillatory adjustment [3][5][61]. - Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1: Soybean meal may rebound following US soybeans, and attention should be paid to frost risks. Soybean No.1 is in a rebound - oscillation [3][5][63]. - Corn: In an oscillatory state [3][5][65]. - Sugar: Brazil's sugar exports are down year - on - year [3][5][66]. - Cotton: Attention should be paid to the situation of new crop listings [3][5][67]. - Eggs: The near - end game sentiment is strong [3][5][69]. - Hogs: Spot prices are weakening, while far - end expectations are strong [3][5][70]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts [3][5][71].