中辉能化观点-20250905

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish continuation [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [2] - MEG: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [3] - Glass: Bearish continuation [3] - Soda ash: Bearish continuation [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - The consumption peak season in the US has ended, inventories are rising, and attention should be paid to the new OPEC+ production policy. With OPEC+ gradually increasing production, the pressure of crude oil supply surplus is rising, and there is significant downward pressure on oil prices [1][5]. - LPG is affected by the decline in the cost - end crude oil price, and the supply surplus situation persists [1]. - The cost support for L is weakening, but with the approaching of the seasonal peak season in September, the supply - demand pattern will gradually turn to a dual - strong situation [1]. - The cost - end methanol support for PP has improved, but the peak - season demand is lackluster, and the supply - demand pattern remains loose in the medium term [1]. - PVC has weak cost support, a supply - strong and demand - weak fundamental situation, and continuous inventory accumulation [1]. - For PX, the tight supply - demand balance is expected to ease, and the cost support is expected to weaken [1]. - PTA's supply - side pressure is expected to increase in the future, while the demand side shows signs of recovery. The tight supply - demand balance in August - September is expected to ease in the fourth quarter [2]. - MEG's supply - side pressure is expected to rise, but the demand side has positive expectations due to the consumption peak season [2]. - Methanol's supply - side pressure is increasing, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating [2]. - Urea's supply is expected to be loose, but the export situation is good, and there are speculative expectations [2]. - Asphalt's cost support is weakening, and the supply - demand pattern is loose [3]. - Glass has weak demand support, high enterprise inventories, and a supply - strong and demand - weak situation [3]. - Soda ash has high inventories, and the supply - demand pattern remains loose [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude oil - Market review: Overnight international oil prices declined. WTI dropped 0.77%, Brent dropped 0.90%, and SC dropped 1.67% [4]. - Basic logic: The US crude oil consumption peak season has ended, inventories are increasing, and OPEC+ production increase is exerting pressure on oil prices. The price may fall to around $60 in the medium - long term [5]. - Fundamentals: OPEC+ may continue to increase production, but there is high uncertainty. Indian crude oil imports have decreased, and US crude oil inventories have increased [6]. - Strategy recommendation: Partially close short positions. Pay attention to the range of [475 - 490] for SC [7]. LPG - Market review: On September 4, the PG main contract closed at 4383 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.04% [10]. - Basic logic: LPG's price mainly follows the cost - end crude oil price. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, but the cost - end still has downward potential [11]. - Strategy recommendation: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [4300 - 4400] for PG [12]. L - Market review: The L01 closing price was 7225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.3% [15]. - Basic logic: Cost support is weakening, but with the approaching of the peak season in September, the supply - demand pattern will turn better. Pay attention to inventory destocking [16]. - Strategy recommendation: In the short term, it will fluctuate weakly. Look for opportunities to go long on dips. Pay attention to the range of [7200 - 7300] for L [16]. PP - Market review: The PP01 closing price was 6965 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.1% [19]. - Basic logic: Cost - end methanol support has improved, but demand is lackluster. The supply - demand pattern is loose in the medium term, but there is support at the bottom [21]. - Strategy recommendation: Next week, supply will decrease and demand will increase. Look for low - buying opportunities. Pay attention to the range of [6900 - 7000] for PP [21]. PVC - Market review: The V01 closing price was 4883 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.1% [24]. - Basic logic: Spot prices continue to fall, cost support is weak, and inventory is accumulating. The export situation is not optimistic [26]. - Strategy recommendation: Due to low - valuation support, be cautious about short - chasing. Adopt a wait - and - see approach. Pay attention to the range of [4800 - 5000] for V [26]. PX - Market review: The PX11 contract closed at 6878 yuan/ton [28]. - Basic logic: Supply - side device changes are small, demand is weakening but with improved expectations. The tight supply - demand balance is expected to ease, and cost support is weakening [29]. - Strategy recommendation: Hold short positions carefully and look for opportunities to short on rallies. Pay attention to the range of [6610 - 6720] for PX511 [30]. PTA - Market review: The TA01 closed at 4784 yuan/ton [31]. - Basic logic: Recent device maintenance has led to a decline in production, but future supply pressure is expected to increase. The demand side shows signs of recovery. The tight supply - demand balance in August - September is expected to ease in the fourth quarter [33]. - Strategy recommendation: In the short term, it is weak. Hold short positions carefully and look for opportunities to go long on dips. Pay attention to the range of [4610 - 4680] for TA01 [34]. MEG - Market review: The EG01 closed at 4466 yuan/ton [35]. - Basic logic: Domestic devices have slightly increased production, and overseas devices have little change. The supply - side pressure is expected to rise, while the demand side has positive expectations [36]. - Strategy recommendation: Take profits on long positions on rallies and look for opportunities to short on rallies. Pay attention to the range of [4310 - 4370] for EG01 [37]. Methanol - Market review: The methanol main 01 contract closed at 2361 yuan/ton [38]. - Basic logic: Supply - side pressure is increasing, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. The cost support is weakening [39]. - Strategy recommendation: In the short term, the upward movement cannot change the weak situation. Look for opportunities to short on rallies for the 01 contract. Pay attention to the range of [2375 - 2425] for MA01 [41]. Urea - Market review: The urea main contract closed at 1746 yuan/ton [42]. - Basic logic: Supply is expected to be loose, but the export situation is good. There are speculative expectations [44]. - Strategy recommendation: Look for low - buying opportunities for the 01 contract [44]. Asphalt - Market review: Not specifically mentioned in the given text. - Basic logic: The cost - end oil price may decline in the medium - long term, and the supply - demand pattern is loose [3]. - Strategy recommendation: Hold short positions [3]. Glass - Market review: Not specifically mentioned in the given text. - Basic logic: Demand support is weak, enterprise inventories are high, and the supply - demand pattern is loose [3]. - Strategy recommendation: Short on rebounds [3]. Soda ash - Market review: Not specifically mentioned in the given text. - Basic logic: Inventories are high, and the supply - demand pattern remains loose [3]. - Strategy recommendation: Short on rebounds [3].