美国8月非农数据点评：全面“遇冷”

Group 1: Employment Data Overview - In August, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added only 22,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 75,000[2] - The unemployment rate rose to a new high of 4.3%, aligning with market expectations, while the labor force participation rate increased to 62.3%[3] - The June employment figure was revised down by 27,000 to a negative growth of -13,000 jobs[3] Group 2: Sector Performance - Employment in cyclical industries decreased by 48,000 jobs, a decline that expanded by 26,000 jobs compared to the previous month[3] - Non-cyclical industries added 24,000 jobs, but this was a decrease of 52,000 jobs compared to June[3] - The education and health services sector saw a slowdown, with only 46,000 jobs added in August compared to 77,000 in July[20] Group 3: Federal Reserve Implications - Following the employment data release, market sentiment shifted from "rate cut trading" to "recession trading"[5] - The probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in September rose to 11%, with expectations for three rate cuts within the year increasing from 2.4 to 2.8 times[5] - The baseline scenario suggests two rate cuts by the end of the year, contingent on the unemployment rate rising to 4.6% or higher[5] Group 4: Market Reactions - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 10 basis points to approximately 4.06% following the data release[5] - The U.S. dollar index depreciated to 97.5, while spot gold prices surged past $3,600 per ounce[5] - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.3%, and the Hang Seng index increased by 1.4% during the week[6]