“流动性笔记”系列之三：主权债务“迷你风暴”

Group 1: Sovereign Debt Market Adjustments - Recent adjustments in European and Japanese sovereign debt markets have led to a global risk-off sentiment, with UK 10-year bond yields rising to 4.85% and 30-year yields reaching 5.89%, the highest since 1998[14][22] - Political instability and expectations of fiscal easing in Europe and Japan are primary drivers of rising bond yields, with UK CPI inflation at 3.7% and Japan's core-core CPI at 3.4%[3][37] - The European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BOJ) are shifting towards tighter monetary policies, contributing to the upward pressure on long-term bond yields[4][41] Group 2: US Monetary Market Pressure Test - The US monetary market is undergoing a "stress test" due to the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction, TGA account rebuilding, and seasonal corporate tax payments, reminiscent of the 2019 repo crisis[5][45] - In September 2019, secured overnight financing rates (SOFR) spiked to 5.25%, highlighting liquidity shortages, with a similar environment emerging now but with manageable risks[49][50] - Current liquidity remains ample, and the Fed has tools to manage potential pressures, indicating that while risks exist, they are not imminent[56][61] Group 3: Reassessment of US Treasury Risks - The risk of a repeat of the "Treasury tantrum" is considered controllable, with factors such as a larger TGA funding gap and increased long-term debt issuance influencing market stability[6][63] - The US economy is projected to grow at around 5% in Q3 2023, but inflationary pressures remain, with Brent crude oil prices fluctuating around $90 per barrel[6][63] - The long-term outlook for US Treasury yields suggests an upward trend driven by fiscal dominance and rising term premiums, with market expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2026 being overly optimistic[66][68]