钢铁行业周报（20250901-20250905）：9月钢价或先抑后扬，关注需求释放节奏-20250907

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the steel industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is currently experiencing a dual weakness in supply and demand, primarily due to production restrictions in Hebei, leading to a supply contraction while market demand remains insufficient [3][4] - The steel price is expected to initially decline before rising, influenced by the recovery of demand and supply adjustments post the "9.3" military parade [8][9] - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to optimize the supply structure and improve the industry's long-term outlook, providing a policy support base for the sector [4][9] Industry Data Summary Production Data - As of September 5, the average daily pig iron output from 247 steel enterprises was 2.2884 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 11.29% [8] - The capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces was 85.79%, down 4.23 percentage points week-on-week [8] Consumption Data - The total consumption of the five major steel products was 8.2783 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 299,400 tons [8] - The apparent consumption of rebar, wire rod, hot-rolled, cold-rolled, and medium plate showed respective week-on-week changes of -21,400 tons, -30,300 tons, -153,600 tons, -14,300 tons, and -79,800 tons [8] Inventory Situation - The total steel inventory reached 15.007 million tons, an increase of 328,200 tons week-on-week [8] - Social inventory rose by 313,000 tons to 10.7768 million tons, while steel mill inventory increased by 15,200 tons to 4.2302 million tons [8] Profitability - As of September 5, the gross profit per ton for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel was -6 yuan, +34 yuan, and -30 yuan respectively, with week-on-week changes of -39 yuan, -32 yuan, and -21 yuan [8] - 61.04% of the sampled steel enterprises were profitable, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points week-on-week [8] Price Trends - As of September 1, the prices for five major steel products were as follows: rebar at 3,282 yuan/ton, wire rod at 3,597 yuan/ton, hot-rolled at 3,399 yuan/ton, cold-rolled at 3,889 yuan/ton, and medium plate at 3,498 yuan/ton, with respective week-on-week changes of -1.17%, -1.02%, -0.69%, -0.45%, and -0.70% [8][16]