氧化铝供应继续回升，供应过剩幅度加大

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating for alumina is "Oscillating" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Alumina supply continues to recover, and the supply surplus widens. The spot price of alumina declined last week, and the market sentiment is bearish. The supply of alumina is increasing, while the demand is also rising both domestically and overseas. The inventory of alumina has increased, and the registered warehouse receipts on the SHFE have also risen. The futures price is expected to show an oscillating and weakening trend, and it is recommended to adopt a strategy of short - selling on rallies [1][2][13][16] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - Raw Materials: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. In Shanxi, the含税 price of 58/5 ore was 700 yuan/ton; in Henan, it was 658 yuan/ton; and in Guizhou, the arrival - at - factory含税 price of 60/6 bauxite was 596 yuan/ton. Shanxi's ore production was affected by policies, rainfall, and the parade. Imported ore: The ALD Guinea ore price index was 74 - 76 dollars/dry ton. Newly - arrived ore was 456.2 million tons, including 319.1 million tons from Guinea and 137.0 million tons from Australia. The freight from Guinea to China dropped by 1 dollar to 25 dollars/ton [2][12] - Alumina: The spot price of alumina fell last week. The ALD northern comprehensive price was 3040 - 3120 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton; the domestic weighted index was 3101 yuan/ton, down 82.4 yuan/ton. The import port price was 3190 - 3230 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The market was bearish, and buyers' willingness to purchase decreased. The domestic full - cost of alumina was 2871 yuan/ton, and the real - time profit was 361 yuan/ton. The national alumina production capacity was 11462 million tons, with 9675 million tons in operation, an increase of 170 million tons from last week, and the operating rate was 84.4% [3][13] - Demand: Domestically, Yunnan Honghe New Materials' operating capacity increased by 7 million tons to about 30 million tons. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 4414.3 million tons, an increase of 7 million tons. Overseas, the New Zealand Tiwai Point electrolytic aluminum plant was resuming production, with an operating capacity of 33.8 million tons and about to reach full - capacity. Indonesia's Juwana Aluminum started power - on testing in early September, expected to produce 15 - 20 million tons this year. The overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 2969.4 million tons, an increase of 10.4 million tons [14] - Inventory: As of September 4th, the national alumina inventory was 360.9 million tons, an increase of 11.2 million tons from last week. The electrolytic aluminum inventory increased significantly, the alumina factory inventory increased implicitly, and the in - transit volume decreased [14] - Warehouse Receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the SHFE were 112306 tons, an increase of 23480 tons from last week [15] 2. Summary of Key Events and News in the Industry Chain during the Week - On September 5th, a Xinjiang aluminum plant tendered for 1 million tons of alumina at a delivered price of 3240 yuan/ton, with suppliers mainly delivering Shandong goods due to the railway freight discount in Shandong [17] - On September 5th, a Chongqing electrolytic aluminum enterprise purchased 0.5 million tons of alumina in Guizhou at a delivered price of 3350 yuan/ton [17] - Overseas, the tender sales of spot alumina increased, with the origin mainly in Australia, Indonesia, Vietnam, and India, and the shipping dates mostly from early to late October, potentially increasing domestic supply [17] 3. Monitoring of Key Data in the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain 3.1 Raw Materials and Cost End - Data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, port shipments from major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory of major bauxite - importing countries, domestic caustic soda price trends, domestic thermal coal price trends, and alumina production costs in various provinces were presented [18][20][22] 3.2 Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance - Data on domestic and imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the SHFE, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina were provided [35][37][39] 3.3 Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Data on electrolytic aluminum plants' alumina inventory, alumina plants' alumina inventory, domestic alumina yard/platform/in - transit inventory, alumina port inventory, domestic total social alumina inventory, and the SHFE alumina warehouse receipts and open interest were shown [46][49][52]