旺季尾声日耗见顶，供给收缩托底煤价

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "stronger than the market" [6] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the fundamental goal is to reverse the Producer Price Index (PPI), which has been declining, with July's PPI showing a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%. The stability of coal prices is closely linked to PPI, and the lowest coal prices in 2025 may represent a policy bottom, with expectations for more supply-side policies to be introduced [5][6] - The coal industry is currently undergoing a significant transformation, with strict capacity controls and increasing operational difficulties leading to a tighter supply. The report suggests that coal will remain a key energy source in the short term, despite macroeconomic weaknesses affecting demand [5][6] - The report identifies several investment opportunities in the coal sector, focusing on companies with strong resource endowments, stable operating performance, and high or potentially increasing dividend ratios [6] Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The coal index increased by 0.31% this week, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which decreased by 0.81%. Year-to-date, the coal index has dropped by 9.32%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index has risen by 13.35% [11][12] 2. Thermal Coal 2.1 Key Indicators - As of September 5, 2025, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price was 679 CNY/ton, down 1.6% week-on-week. The average daily production from 462 sample mines was 5.379 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.5% [3][21] 2.2 Annual Long-term Contract Price - The long-term contract price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 674 CNY/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 0.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.3% [23] 2.3 Spot Prices - The report details various spot prices for thermal coal across different regions, indicating slight fluctuations in prices [27][28] 2.4 Supply and Demand - The report notes a slight decrease in daily consumption by major power plants, with a total inventory of 13.388 million tons, reflecting a minor decline [37][48] 3. Coking Coal 3.1 Key Indicators - The report highlights the price changes for coking coal, with the main coking coal price at Jing Tang Port dropping to 1540 CNY/ton, a decrease of 4.3% week-on-week [62][63] 3.2 Spot Prices - Various spot prices for coking coal are provided, showing both increases and decreases across different regions [66][68]