Soochow Securities·2025-09-07 08:26Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal price has slightly declined due to weakening demand as temperatures drop, with the current port price for thermal coal at 679 RMB/ton, down 11 RMB/ton week-on-week [1] - Supply remains stable, with an average daily inflow of 1.8214 million tons to the four ports in the Bohai Rim, a decrease of 0.0084 million tons or 0.46% from the previous week [1] - Daily outflow from the same ports is 1.8393 million tons, down 0.0574 million tons or 3.03% week-on-week, indicating a slight reduction in demand [1] - The total inventory at the Bohai Rim ports is 22.71 million tons, down 0.37 million tons or 1.60% from the previous week, reflecting a slight decrease in overall inventory levels [1] - The report suggests that as the peak season for coal approaches its end, the combination of strong supply and weak demand may put pressure on inventory depletion in the short term, with coal prices expected to remain volatile [1] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,812.51 points, down 63.02 points or 1.63% week-on-week, with the coal sector index at 2,634.16 points, down 9.33 points or 0.35% [10] 2. Domestic Coal Prices - Domestic thermal coal prices have shown mixed trends, with some regions experiencing price increases while port prices have decreased [16][18] 3. International Prices - International thermal coal prices have shown a slight decline, with the Newcastle coal price index down 0.87 USD/ton to 109.30 USD/ton [18] 4. Inventory and Shipping - The average daily inflow and outflow of coal at the Bohai Rim ports have both decreased, indicating a slowdown in coal movement [27][30] - The average shipping cost on domestic routes has decreased by 3.9 RMB/ton to 29.81 RMB/ton, a drop of 11.57% [32] 5. Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring insurance capital inflows and suggests focusing on resource stocks, particularly recommending companies like Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy as elastic targets in the thermal coal sector [35]