基础化工2025中报综述：黎明破晓，迎接阳光普照

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the chemical industry [9] Core Insights - The chemical industry experienced a slight revenue increase of 1.9% year-on-year in H1 2025, with total revenue reaching 12,630.5 billion yuan, while net profit decreased by 1.0% to 746.7 billion yuan. The gross margin remained stable at 16.8% [2][5][17] - The outlook for the chemical sector is optimistic, with expectations of demand recovery driven by anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and domestic policies aimed at reducing competition. This could lead to a positive supply-demand dynamic [2][18] - Key sub-sectors such as fluorochemicals, pesticides, additives, potassium fertilizers, and compound fertilizers showed significant year-on-year profit growth in H1 2025 [5][6] Summary by Sections Overall Performance - In H1 2025, the chemical industry saw a slight revenue increase to 12,630.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.9%. Net profit was 746.7 billion yuan, down 1.0% from the previous year. The gross margin was stable at 16.8% [5][17] - The industry is experiencing a low-level oscillation in its economic performance, with capital expenditures declining and many chemical products nearing the end of their expansion cycles [5][17] Key Sub-sectors Analysis - Fluorochemicals: Achieved a net profit of 34.5 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 133.8% increase year-on-year, driven by a new pricing model for refrigerants [6][35] - Phosphorus Chemicals: Generated a net profit of 42.9 billion yuan, down 2.2% year-on-year, but with stable pricing for phosphate rock [6][46] - Potassium Fertilizers: Reported a net profit of 56.6 billion yuan, up 39.7% year-on-year, with strong demand and rising prices [6][52] - Pesticides: Achieved a net profit of 51.9 billion yuan, a 90.3% increase year-on-year, indicating signs of recovery in the market [6][35] - Soda Ash: Experienced a significant decline in net profit, down 72.5% year-on-year, but potential recovery is anticipated due to policy changes [6][38] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests actively investing in the chemical sector, particularly in cyclical and growth-oriented companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Longbai Group, as well as in sectors benefiting from new production capabilities and stable growth [7][38]