煤炭与消费用燃料行业周报：焦煤期货大涨后，后续如何看？-20250907

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that after a significant rise in coking coal futures by 6%, the price support for coking coal remains strong due to tight supply and replenishment effects. In the medium to long term, the focus will be on "anti-involution" and price stability, with potential for a demand recovery driven by economic stimulus, which could lead to a "Davis Double" for coking coal [2][7] - The coal index (Yangtze) increased by 0.34%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.15 percentage points, ranking 9th out of 32 industries [6][15] - The report emphasizes the importance of price stability as indicated by recent policies from Shanxi and Shaanxi provinces, which aim to promote stable coal market operations [6][7] Summary by Sections Coking Coal Market - As of September 5, the price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1540 RMB/ton, a decrease of 70 RMB/ton week-on-week. The report suggests that while short-term fluctuations may increase due to a slowdown in downstream purchasing demand, the medium to long-term outlook remains positive with potential for price support [6][7][17] Thermal Coal Market - The market price for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 679 RMB/ton as of September 5, down 11 RMB/ton week-on-week. Despite a seasonal transition from peak to off-peak demand, the report anticipates limited downside for coal prices due to ongoing supply constraints and replenishment needs [6][16] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a focus on companies with improving fundamentals under the "anti-involution" theme, suggesting a mix of elastic stocks and stable profit leaders. Specific companies highlighted include Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, China Shenhua Energy, and others [8][29]