外汇期货周度报告：非农不及预期，美元维持弱势-20250907

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "Oscillating" [5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market risk appetite has cooled, with most stocks falling, bond yields mostly declining, and the US Treasury yield dropping to 4.07%. The US dollar index oscillated and closed flat at 97.7, non - US currencies showed mixed performance, gold prices rose 4% to $3,586 per ounce, the VIX index dropped to 15.1, the spot commodity index fell, and Brent crude oil dropped 3.7% to $65.1 per barrel [1][9] - The market is concerned about Trump's influence on the Fed's personnel changes, and concerns about the Fed's independence have increased but not significantly fermented. There are significant differences among Fed officials' views before the September interest - rate meeting, with some dovish and some hawkish. The market has fully priced in a 25bp rate cut in September, and the expectation of a 50bp rate cut has increased, but a significant rate cut is still a low - probability scenario due to inflation rebound pressure [2][11] - The August non - farm payrolls report showed that the US employment market continued to cool down, with new non - farm jobs falling short of expectations, the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, and wage growth slowing down. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September, and the weakening labor market may lead to a weaker US dollar [2][33] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite cooled. Most stocks fell, bond yields mostly declined, the US Treasury yield dropped to 4.07%. The US dollar index oscillated and closed flat at 97.7, non - US currencies had mixed performance, gold prices rose 4% to $3,586 per ounce, the VIX index dropped to 15.1, the spot commodity index fell, and Brent crude oil dropped 3.7% to $65.1 per barrel [1][9] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly fell. The S&P 500 index rose 0.33%, euro - zone stock markets mostly fell, emerging - market stock markets mostly rose, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.18%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 1.36%, and the Nikkei 225 index rose 0.7% [10][11] - The market is concerned about Trump's influence on the Fed's personnel changes, and concerns about the Fed's independence have increased. Fed officials have different views before the September interest - rate meeting, and the August non - farm payrolls report is a key factor [11] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly declined. The 10 - year US Treasury yield dropped to 4.07%, euro - zone government bond yields mostly declined, and emerging - market bond yields mostly declined [18] - The August non - farm payrolls report strengthened the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut, pushing down the US Treasury yield. However, the manufacturing and service PMI showed increased price - rising pressure, and the upcoming August CPI in the US is expected to rebound, limiting the downward space of the long - end US Treasury yield [19] - The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield slightly dropped to 1.776%, and the Sino - US interest - rate spread inverted to 229bp. The domestic bond market remained weak [22] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index oscillated and closed at 97.7, non - US currencies had mixed performance. The offshore RMB fell 0.05%, the euro rose 0.28%, the pound rose 0.04%, the yen fell 0.26%, and some currencies depreciated while others appreciated [27] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold rose 4% to $3,586 per ounce, reaching a new high. Trump's intervention in the Fed increased concerns about its independence, which was positive for gold. The expectation of a rate cut increased, but significant rate cuts were less likely due to inflation [30] - Brent crude oil dropped 3.7% to $65.1 per barrel. The decline in crude oil inventory was less than expected, supply increased, and weak supply - demand relationship pressured oil prices. The domestic industrial product anti - involution trading was volatile, and the commodity spot index fell [30] 3. Hot - Spot Tracking - The August non - farm payrolls in the US fell short of expectations, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% and new non - farm jobs only 22,000, far lower than the expected 75,000. The labor market continued to weaken, and the Fed is expected to cut interest rates in September [33] - The non - farm data made the weakening trend of the US dollar index more obvious, and the market is more inclined to a soft landing of the US economy, with continued bearish sentiment on the US dollar index [34] 4. Next Week's Important Event Tips - Monday: China's August imports and exports, US August New York Fed inflation expectations - Tuesday: US August NFIB small business confidence index, US 2025 non - farm employment benchmark change preliminary value - Wednesday: China's August CPI, US August PPI - Thursday: US August CPI, ECB September interest - rate meeting resolution - Friday: US September University of Michigan consumer confidence index and inflation expectations [35]