周观：从股债性价比角度看债市点位（2025年第35期）

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (2025.9.1 - 2025.9.5), the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond decreased by 1.25bp to 1.7675%. The stock - bond relationship remains an important theme this year. The ERP indicator is used to measure the stock - bond cost - performance. It is expected that the ERP will fall back to the central value, and the 10Y treasury bond yield will rise moderately, with the top at 1.85% [1][10][14] - Gold has strong allocation value currently. The short - end of US bonds has higher winning probability, and the long - end has higher odds. The long - end's higher volatility and long - duration may become the key to allocation [1][15] - The US ISM manufacturing PMI has been contracting for six consecutive months, while the service PMI has expanded at the fastest pace in half a year, exceeding market expectations. The US labor market is cooling, strengthening the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut this month [17][18][20] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Viewpoints - Stock - Bond Cost - Performance Assessment: This week, the 10 - year active treasury bond yield decreased from 1.78% to 1.7675%. The daily fluctuations were affected by factors such as regulatory statements, capital conditions, stock market trends, and policy expectations [10][11] - Analysis of US Bond Yield Trends: Gold has strong allocation value. The short - end of US bonds has higher winning probability, and the long - end has higher odds. The US ISM manufacturing PMI has contracted for six consecutive months, and the service PMI has expanded rapidly. The labor market is cooling, and the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates this month [15][17][20] 3.2 Domestic and Foreign Data Summaries 3.2.1 Liquidity Tracking - Open - Market Operations: From 2025/09/01 - 2025/09/05, the total net investment in open - market operations was - 12047 billion yuan, showing a net withdrawal of funds [29] - Interest Rate Changes: Various money market interest rates such as R, DR, and SHIBOR have changed to different degrees, with most showing a downward trend [31] 3.2.2 Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data Tracking - Real - Estate Market: The total commercial housing transaction area has declined across the board [50][51] - Commodity Prices: Steel prices have declined across the board, while LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices have shown mixed trends [52] 3.3 Local Bond One - Week Review 3.3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - Issuance Scale: This week, 19 local bonds were issued, with a total issuance amount of 933.91 billion yuan, a repayment amount of 566.83 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 367.09 billion yuan [80] - Provincial Distribution: Five provinces and cities issued local bonds, with Hebei, Henan, Heilongjiang, Hubei, and Shandong ranking in the top five in terms of issuance amount [82] 3.3.2 Secondary Market Overview - Transaction Volume and Turnover Rate: The current stock of local bonds is 53.08 trillion yuan, with a trading volume of 3601.18 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.68% [100] - Regional and Maturity Distribution: The top three provinces with active local bond transactions are Jiangsu, Anhui, and Sichuan, and the top three active maturities are 5Y, 30Y, and 10Y [100] 3.3.3 This Month's Local Bond Issuance Plan - No specific plan details are provided, only a related chart is mentioned [107] 3.4 Credit Bond Market One - Week Review 3.4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - Total Issuance and Net Financing: This week, 177 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance amount of 1366.97 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 1919.64 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of - 552.67 billion yuan, a decrease of 248.59 billion yuan compared with last week [107] - Sub - category Issuance and Net Financing: The net financing of urban investment bonds was - 377.95 billion yuan, and that of industrial bonds was - 174.72 billion yuan. By bond type, short - term financing bonds had a net financing of - 239.53 billion yuan, medium - term notes had a net financing of - 241.28 billion yuan, enterprise bonds had a net financing of - 89.04 billion yuan, corporate bonds had a net financing of 48.46 billion yuan, and private placement notes had a net financing of - 31.27 billion yuan [108][112][113] 3.4.2 Issuance Interest Rates - The issuance interest rates of short - term financing bonds decreased by 4.26bp, those of medium - term notes increased by 2.94bp, and those of corporate bonds decreased by 14.97bp [118] 3.4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview - The total trading volume of credit bonds this week was 4606.97 billion yuan, with different trading volumes for different bond types and credit ratings [119] 3.4.4 Maturity Yields - The maturity yields of national development bonds generally decreased. The yields of short - term financing bonds and medium - term notes generally decreased, while the yields of enterprise bonds and urban investment bonds showed a differentiated trend [120][121][123] 3.4.5 Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of short - term financing bonds and medium - term notes showed a differentiated trend, while the credit spreads of enterprise bonds widened across the board, and the credit spreads of urban investment bonds generally widened [127][130][133] 3.4.6 Rating Spreads - The rating spreads of short - term financing bonds and medium - term notes generally narrowed, the rating spreads of enterprise bonds showed a differentiated trend, and the rating spreads of urban investment bonds generally widened [136][139][143] 3.4.7 Trading Activity - The top five most actively traded bonds of each bond type this week are presented in a table, but specific details are not provided in the text [148]