KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-09-07 10:52Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the profitability of the breeding chain is expected to see significant growth in H1 2025, with the pet sector maintaining its high prosperity [3][20] - The preliminary ruling on anti-dumping measures against EU pork imports is anticipated to drive domestic pork prices upward, presenting a good opportunity for investment in the pig farming sector [4][14] - The report emphasizes a dual driving force from both fundamental and policy aspects, suggesting that pig prices are likely to rise in H2 2025, improving the investment logic in the pig farming sector [20] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The Ministry of Commerce has announced preliminary anti-dumping measures on EU pork imports, with a guarantee deposit rate ranging from 15.6% to 62.4% [4][13] - The domestic pork and pork offal import volume reached 1.15 million tons in H1 2025, with EU imports accounting for 52% [14][16] Market Performance (Sept 1 - Sept 5) - The agricultural index underperformed the market by 0.15 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.18% and the agricultural index down 1.32% [6][24] - The pet food sector led the gains among sub-sectors, with notable increases in individual stocks such as Yuegui Co. (+13.19%) and Honghui Fruits (+9.23%) [6][24][29] Price Tracking (Sept 1 - Sept 5) - The average price of live pigs was 13.77 yuan/kg, up 0.11 yuan/kg from the previous week, while the average price of piglets was 25.4 yuan/kg, down 1.74 yuan/kg [7][35] - The price of corn futures increased by 1.46% to 2219.00 yuan/ton, and soybean meal futures rose by 1.60% to 2536.00 yuan/ton [47][48] Key News (Sept 1 - Sept 5) - The Ministry of Agriculture reported a 5.3% month-on-month increase in the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises in July 2025 [30] - The report indicates that the domestic pig farming sector is expected to benefit from the anti-dumping measures, leading to a potential increase in domestic pork prices [4][14] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the pig farming sector include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Juxing Agriculture [20] - In the feed sector, companies like Haida Group and New Hope Liuhe are recommended due to strong domestic and overseas demand [20][23]