EBSCN·2025-09-07 11:48Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The copper price is expected to strengthen in Q4 2025 due to improved supply-demand dynamics and a 100% probability of interest rate cuts in the US [1][4]. - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 10.6%, while LME copper inventory decreased by 0.6% [2][25]. - The report recommends companies such as Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining, while also suggesting to pay attention to Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Factors - The US non-farm employment data for August was below expectations, leading to a 100% probability of interest rate cuts in September [1][37]. - The US dollar index remains weak, impacting copper prices positively [1]. Supply Dynamics - Domestic copper concentrate inventory decreased by 3.1%, while the TC spot price increased by $0.8/ton [2][48]. - China's copper concentrate production in May 2025 was 158,000 tons, up 22.7% month-on-month and 11.2% year-on-year [2][50]. - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper increased by 293 RMB/ton, indicating a tighter supply of scrap copper [2][54]. Demand Trends - The cable manufacturing industry's operating rate decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 66.75% [3][76]. - Air conditioning production is expected to decline year-on-year by 12%, 22.6%, and 19.7% for September, October, and November respectively [3][94]. - The operating rate for brass rods, which account for 4.2% of domestic copper demand, was 43.9%, down 1 percentage point year-on-year [3][94]. Futures Market - The SHFE copper active contract positions increased by 4%, while COMEX non-commercial net long positions decreased by 2% [4][32]. - As of September 5, 2025, the SHFE copper active contract position was 187,000 lots, up 3.6% week-on-week [4][32]. Investment Recommendations - The report anticipates that copper prices will continue to rise due to tightening supply and improving demand in 2025 [4]. - Recommended stocks include Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining, with a focus on Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4].