智利8月发运环比回落，周内仓单大幅增加

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lithium carbonate industry is "Oscillation" [2] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week (09/01 - 09/05), lithium salt prices were weak. The closing prices of LC2509 and LC2511 decreased by 4.1% and 3.8% respectively. The average spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate dropped by 6.2% and 6.3%. The prices of lithium hydroxide also declined [3]. - In August, Chile's exports of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide decreased by 16% month - on - month, and the exports to China decreased by 5% month - on - month, which may lead to a slight decline in China's imports in September [4]. - The recent decline in the futures market is mainly due to the lack of further production cuts in the short term after the previous supply - side shutdown, and the continuous negative impact of explicit data such as warehouse receipts. However, the inventory reduction in September has provided some support for prices. In the short term, lithium prices may fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Chile's August Shipment Declined Month - on - Month, and Warehouse Receipts Increased Significantly Last Week - Lithium salt prices were weak last week. The closing prices of LC2509 and LC2511 decreased, and the average spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate also dropped. The prices of lithium hydroxide decreased, the electrical - industrial price difference narrowed slightly, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide changed from a discount to a slight premium compared to battery - grade lithium carbonate [3][15]. - In August, Chile exported 2.01 million tons of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, a 16% month - on - month decrease and an 11% year - on - year increase. The exports to China were 1.30 million tons, a 5% month - on - month decrease and a 7% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the total exports were 16.9 million tons, a 4% year - on - year decrease, and the exports to China were 10.98 million tons, a 14% year - on - year decrease. In terms of lithium sulfate, the shipment to China in August was 0.69 million tons (0.35 million tons LCE), a 33% month - on - month decrease and a 2% year - on - year decrease [4][16]. - The recent decline in the futures market is due to the lack of further production cuts and the negative impact of warehouse receipts. Last week, warehouse receipts increased by 6744 tons to 3.66 million tons. In September, domestic lithium carbonate production increased by 0.15 million tons to 8.67 million tons. However, inventory reduction in September has provided some support for prices, and the speed of warehouse receipt generation may slow down [5][21]. 2. Weekly Industry News Review - Sayona Mining completed its merger with Piedmont Lithium. After the merger, Sayona's Australian shares will continue to trade until the end of September, and the company will be renamed Elevra Lithium and listed on the ASX [23]. - Argentina's Salta Province approved Rio Tinto's Rincon lithium project. The project is expected to produce 50,000 tons/year of battery - grade lithium carbonate and will become one of the largest lithium projects in Argentina by 2031 [23]. - Sichuan Energy Investment Power Co., Ltd.'s 30,000 - ton lithium salt project successfully produced qualified battery - grade lithium carbonate products, laying a foundation for full - scale production [24]. - Kodal Minerals obtained an export license for the lithium spodumene concentrate produced at its Bougouni lithium project in southern Mali, with an initial export volume of 125,000 tons [24]. 3. Monitoring of Key High - Frequency Data in the Industry Chain 3.1 Resource End: Spot Quotes of Lithium Concentrate Declined - The spot price of lithium concentrate decreased. For example, the average spot price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) decreased by 2.6% month - on - month [16]. 3.2 Lithium Salts: The Futures Market Rose and Then Fell - The closing prices of lithium carbonate futures contracts decreased, and the average spot prices of domestic lithium carbonate also declined. The electrical - industrial price difference and the basis of lithium carbonate changed [16]. 3.3 Downstream Intermediates: Quotes Slightly Rebounded - The prices of downstream intermediate products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and lithium cobalt oxide showed different trends, with some prices slightly increasing and some decreasing [16]. 3.4 Terminal: China's New Energy Vehicle Penetration Rate Slightly Increased in July - In July, China's new energy vehicle penetration rate slightly increased, and the installed capacity of power batteries and the production and sales of new energy vehicles also showed certain trends [51].