固收周度点评：债市，以静制动-20250907

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The bond market has been in a "passive defense" mode, with a "follow - down but not follow - up" pattern. However, as the upward momentum of the stock market weakens, the bond market may gradually shift from "passive defense" to "active repair." Although a trend - based repair may still need to wait, there may be a short - term repair window, allowing for the search of structural opportunities. But the stock - bond "seesaw" logic remains, and further stock market rises could suppress the bond market [4][30][31]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Bond Market Review: Stable First, Then Decline, and Seasonal Easing of Funds - Asymmetric Stock - Bond Linkage and Differentiated Long - and Short - End Performance: The bond market continued the "passive defense" mode. When the stock market adjusted, the bond market's confidence needed to be strengthened, showing an oscillatory repair. When the stock market recovered, the bond market declined almost unilaterally. The long - and short - ends showed different characteristics: the short - end was "easy to rise and hard to fall," and the long - end was "down first, then up." The curve flattened, with the short - end being weak and the medium - and long - ends rising first and then falling. As of 9/5, the yields of 1Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y government bonds changed by 2.6, - 2, - 1.2, - 2.5BP respectively compared to 8/29 [7][8]. - Seasonal Easing of Funds at the Beginning of the Month: The central bank's net reverse - repurchase liquidity withdrawal exceeded one trillion yuan at the beginning of the month, and the funds became seasonally loose. The volatility of fund rates decreased significantly, and the willingness of state - owned banks to lend recovered rapidly. The yields of certificates of deposit (CDs) fluctuated slightly. As of 9/5, compared to 8/29, DR001, DR007, R001, and R007 decreased by 1.32BP, 7.86BP, 5.75BP, and 6.05BP respectively, and the secondary yields of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y CDs changed by - 0.9, + 1.0, + 1.1, + 0.4, + 0.5BP respectively [15][16]. 3.2 This Week's Focus: Why Does the Bond Market "Follow Down but Not Follow Up"? - Lack of Clear Driving Forces for Bond Market Repair: Neither the fund nor the fundamental aspects provided clear driving forces for the bond market's repair. The fund was basically loose enough, mainly providing "bottom - support" rather than "driving strength." The fundamental faced structural repair pressure, and the market had sufficient expectations. The restart of government bond trading was uncertain in the short term [20]. - Boosted Market Risk Appetite and Potential Negative Pressures: The continuous efforts in real - estate policies and the rising "anti - involution" expectations boosted market risk appetite. The bond market was still worried about potential negative factors, and the sentiment was weak [21]. - Absence of Allocation - Disk Support and Increased Bond Market Volatility: The support of the allocation - disk was limited this year. The net purchase of over - 10 - year interest - rate bonds by relevant institutions decreased marginally. The initiative of the trading - disk to go long was not strong, and there was passive selling pressure. Bond funds were cautious about extending durations [25][26]. 3.3 Next Week's Concerns: Will the Bond Market's "Main Logic" Return? - Weakening Stock Market Momentum and Bond Market Repair Foundation: The A - share trading volume declined from its high last week, indicating that the upward momentum of the stock market may be weakening. The market's consensus on the weakening of the stock market's upward momentum will promote the repair of bond market sentiment. After the adjustment, the bond yield curve has certain trading value, and the abundant liquidity can support the bond market's repair [30]. - Short - Term Repair Window and Potential Risks: Although a trend - based repair may need to wait, the bond market may have a short - term repair window. However, the stock - bond "seesaw" logic still exists. If the stock market continues to rise moderately, it may suppress the bond market, and the redemption pressure of hybrid products may disrupt the repair process [31].