Tianfeng Securities·2025-09-07 11:43Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates has significantly increased, driving up the price of gold to a new high. Weak economic data such as job vacancies, non - farm employment, ADP employment, and manufacturing PMI in the US have led to a notable rise in the expectation of interest rate cuts, which has affected various asset prices including stocks, bonds, foreign exchange, and commodities [1][2]. - The 9th Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting may see increased internal divergence, and the new dot - plot may become more dispersed as Fed officials have different stances on interest rate cuts [2][29]. - Trump's policies, including tariff adjustments and actions related to the Federal Reserve, have brought uncertainties to the market, and Trump's net satisfaction rate has declined [3][36]. Summary by Directory 1. Overseas Market One - Week Review - Equity Market: US stocks showed a volatile trend this week, with the three major indices having different performances. The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and NASDAQ closed up 0.33%, down 0.32%, and up 1.14% respectively. German DAX, London FTSE 100, Nikkei 225, and South Korea Composite Index also had different trends [1][11]. - Foreign Exchange Market: The US dollar fell slightly this week. The US dollar index closed down 0.11%. The euro and yen against the US dollar rose 0.28% and fell 0.24% respectively, and the RMB against the US dollar fell 0.05% [11]. - Interest Rate Market: The yield of US Treasury bonds first rose and then fell sharply. The 2Y and 10Y US Treasury bonds fell 8bp and 13bp respectively this week [12]. - Commodity Market: Gold rose to a new high, and the price of gold reached $3,600 per ounce. Crude oil prices fell due to the news that OPEC + was considering a new round of production increases. COMEX gold and silver rose 3.61% and 2.09% respectively, and WTI crude oil fell 3.19% [1][12]. 2. Overseas Policies and Important News 2.1 Overseas Central Bank Dynamics - Due to weak employment data, the expectation of interest rate cuts has risen significantly. After the non - farm data was released on Friday, the market began to price in a 50bp interest rate cut in September. According to the CME FedWatch tool, as of September 6, the market expected a 100% probability of an interest rate cut in September, with an 89% probability of a 25bp cut and an 11% probability of a 50bp cut. The market expects a total of 75bp in interest rate cuts in 2025 [2][31]. - Fed officials have different stances. Waller is dovish, Bostic and Musalem are hawkish, and Goolsbee, Williams, and Kashkari are neutral [29][30]. 2.2 Trump Policy Tracking - Tariff Policies: The Trump administration appealed to the US Supreme Court to overturn the ruling that Trump's tariffs on multiple countries were illegal. Trump signed an executive order to implement the US - Japan trade agreement, reducing the US tariff on Japanese cars from 27.5% to 15%. The US government will impose tariffs on imported products of semiconductor companies that do not transfer production to the US [3][35]. - Federal Reserve - Related: Trump - nominated Fed理事Milan participated in a congressional confirmation hearing this Thursday, reaffirming his commitment to the Fed's independence. The US Department of Justice has launched a criminal investigation into Fed理事Lisa Cook. The candidates for the new Fed chairman are basically locked in three people: Hassett, Warsh, and Waller [35][36]. 3. Overseas Economic Fundamental High - Frequency Tracking - Overall Prosperity: As of September 5, the bet on a US economic recession in 2025 on the Polymarket website was 9%, down from 10% a week ago. Bloomberg expects the US economy to grow by 1.62% in 2025, slightly higher than the previous forecast, and the eurozone economy to grow by 1.1%, the same as the previous forecast. The New York Fed and Atlanta Fed's instant forecast models have both lowered their forecasts for the US economic growth rate in Q3 2025 [40][42][44]. - Employment: The number of people receiving unemployment benefits exceeded expectations. The number of initial jobless claims rose to 237,000, higher than the expected 230,000 [45]. - Demand: Retail sales were stable, and airport security check - in numbers continued to be better than the same period last year. The real estate market activity declined slightly [51]. - Production: US crude steel production declined significantly, while the refinery's prosperity was relatively stable [57]. - Shipping: International freight rates generally fell, and the export container prices at Chinese ports also declined [59][61]. - Prices: The US retail gasoline price rose by 0.25% this week, and the inflation expectation in the swap market decreased. The 1 - year inflation swap rate was 3.303%, down 0.17 percentage points from a week ago [63]. - Financial Conditions: The US financial pressure increased, with the credit spread widening and the OFR US financial stress index rising [65]. 4. Next Week's Overseas Important Event Reminders Next week (September 8 - 12, 2025), key overseas events to watch include US inflation data (PPI and CPI growth rates), the European Central Bank's interest - rate meeting, and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' release of non - farm annual benchmark revision data [6][69].