CMS·2025-09-07 12:28Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly under the current easing cycle, with a focus on resource stocks [2][3]. Core Insights - Recent weak employment data in the US has led to increased expectations for interest rate cuts, influencing the metal market. Attention is drawn to upcoming inflation data from China and the US to avoid unexpected market disruptions [2]. - Gold has shown strong performance, driven by monetary easing, loss of Federal Reserve independence, and rising European risks, with expectations for continued price increases following a technical breakout [2]. - The report highlights that many metal prices are expected to strengthen throughout the year, with continuous upward revisions in company EPS forecasts. Key metals to watch include copper, gold, rare earths, tungsten, antimony, cobalt, and aluminum [2][3]. Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metal sector has shown a significant increase in stock performance, with the industry index rising by 2.12% this week, ranking third among sectors. Precious metals led with a 10.73% increase, followed by energy metals at 5.86% [4]. - The report notes that the total market capitalization of the sector is approximately 536.72 billion, with 235 listed companies [3]. - The report emphasizes the strong performance of tungsten prices due to supply constraints and robust demand, particularly in military and renewable energy sectors [7]. Key Metal Performance - Copper: As of September 4, copper inventories in major regions increased by 0.35 million tons to 1.406 million tons, while LME inventories decreased by 950 tons to 158,000 tons. The report maintains a positive long-term outlook for copper prices, citing historical low valuations [4][5]. - Aluminum: Domestic aluminum ingot inventories reached 626,000 tons, with a slight increase. The report suggests that while the aluminum market is under pressure, long-term fundamentals remain positive [5]. - Precious Metals: Gold and silver prices have increased, with gold reaching $3,587 per ounce, up 4.0% week-on-week. The report anticipates continued strength in precious metal prices due to dovish signals from the Federal Reserve [7]. Strategic Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies involved in copper, aluminum, tungsten, and rare earths, highlighting specific firms such as Zijin Mining, China Nonferrous Mining, and Jiangxi Copper [4][5]. - For precious metals, companies like Lingbao Gold and Shandong Gold are noted as key players to watch [7]. - In the lithium and cobalt sectors, the report suggests monitoring companies like Huayou Cobalt and Luoyang Molybdenum due to expected supply tightness and price increases [7].