Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [8] Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 9.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with total revenue reaching 9.15 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.03 billion yuan, down 46% [1][2] - The decline in revenue is attributed to competitive pressures in the industry, consumer subsidies for childbirth, and inventory reduction efforts [2] - The gross margin decreased to 61.6%, down 6.3 percentage points, primarily due to an increased proportion of sales from raw milk products [3] - The company has a strong commitment to shareholder returns, distributing a mid-term dividend of 1 billion yuan, representing a 100% payout ratio [4] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 19.04 billion, 19.99 billion, and 20.83 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -8.2%, +5.0%, and +4.2% respectively [5] - The forecasted net profit for the same period is 2.31 billion, 2.60 billion, and 2.98 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -35.4%, +13.0%, and +14.6% respectively [5] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 0.25 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.71 [7]
中国飞鹤（06186）：25年中报点评：25H1经营多方面承压，25H2或趋势向好