Workflow
流动性与机构行为跟踪:月初资金松,基金弱增持
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2025-09-07 12:52

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint This week (from September 1st to 5th), the funds rate showed a divergence, with large - bank financing supply increasing on a daily average basis, and funds increasing leverage. The maturity of certificates of deposit decreased, and the yield - to - maturity curve of certificates of deposit steepened. In the cash bond trading, the main buyers were funds, with the net buying volume lower than last week. Funds mainly increased their holdings of 3 - 5Y interest - rate bonds, insurers increased their allocation of interest - rate bonds over 15Y, rural commercial banks turned to slightly increase their holdings, securities firms increased their positions in 3 - 7Y interest - rate bonds, and large banks bought interest - rate bonds within 5Y [4]. Summary by Section 1. Money and Fundamentals - Open - market operations: A total of 2273.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured this week. The central bank injected 1068.4 billion yuan of reverse repurchases from Monday to Friday, and on Friday, 100 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchases were both issued and matured. The net liquidity withdrawal for the whole week was 1204.7 billion yuan [7][10]. - Funds price: As of September 5th, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.36%, 1.46%, 1.32%, and 1.44% respectively, with changes of - 5.75BP, - 6.05BP, - 1.32BP, and - 7.86BP compared to August 29th, and were at the 15%, 7%, 12%, and 2% historical percentiles respectively [7][13]. - Large - bank financing supply: From September 1st to 5th, the total large - bank financing supply was 20.82 trillion yuan, with a maximum daily supply of 4.6 trillion yuan and an average daily supply of 4.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.32 trillion yuan compared to the previous week's daily average [7][16]. - Pledged - repo trading volume: The pledged - repo trading volume increased, with an average daily trading volume of 7.31 trillion yuan and a maximum daily volume of 7.95 trillion yuan, a 3.42% increase compared to the previous week's daily average. The proportion of overnight repo trading increased, with an average daily proportion of 88.4% and a maximum daily proportion of 90.2%, an increase of 2.89 percentage points compared to the previous week's daily average, and was at the 88.6% percentile as of September 5th [7][18]. 2. Certificates of Deposit and Bills - Issuance and financing of certificates of deposit: This week, the issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased compared to the previous week, and the net financing amount turned positive. The total issuance was 581.7 billion yuan, an increase of 24.48 billion yuan from the previous week; the total maturity was 330.05 billion yuan, a decrease of 464.37 billion yuan from the previous week. The net financing amount was 251.65 billion yuan, an increase of 499.96 billion yuan from the previous week. Among different bank types, city commercial banks had the highest issuance scale. Among different maturities, 3M certificates of deposit had the highest issuance scale [7][22]. - Yield - to - maturity curve of certificates of deposit: The yield - to - maturity curve of certificates of deposit steepened. As of September 5th, the yields to maturity of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y inter - bank certificates of deposit rated AAA were 1.45%, 1.55%, 1.63%, 1.66%, and 1.67% respectively, with changes of - 0.9BP, 1BP, 1.1BP, 0.45BP, and 0.5BP compared to August 29th [7][33]. - Bill rates: Bill rates showed a divergence. As of September 5th, the 3M state - owned straight - discount rate, 3M state - owned transfer - discount rate, 6M state - owned straight - discount rate, and 6M state - owned transfer - discount rate were 1.26%, 1.18%, 0.78%, and 0.73% respectively, with changes of 8BP, 13BP, - 4BP, and - 7BP compared to August 29th [7][35]. 3. Institutional Behavior Tracking - Leverage ratio: The inter - bank leverage ratio decreased slightly. As of September 5th, the total inter - bank leverage ratio in the bond market increased by 0.20 percentage points to 106.55% compared to August 29th, at the 36.8% historical percentile since 2021. The leverage ratio of broad - based funds increased slightly. As of September 5th, the leverage ratios of banks, securities firms, insurers, and broad - based funds were 103.5%, 188.3%, 128.1%, and 104.9% respectively, with changes of 0.54BP, 0.54BP, - 2.08BP, and 0.05BP compared to August 29th, and were at the 26%, 1%, 66%, and 24% historical percentiles respectively [7][37][39]. - Duration adjustment: Funds increased their duration, while insurers and wealth - management products decreased their duration. As of September 5th, the weighted average net - buying duration (MA = 10) of funds was 3.42 years, further recovering from - 1.96 years on August 29th, at the 70% historical percentile; the weighted average net - buying duration (MA = 10) of wealth - management products was 1.03 years, showing a decline compared to August 29th, at the 57% historical percentile; the weighted average net - buying duration (MA = 10) of rural commercial banks was - 1.62 years, showing a decline compared to August 29th, at the 22% historical percentile; the weighted average net - buying duration (MA = 10) of insurers was 12.07 years, showing a decline compared to August 29th, at the 87% historical percentile [7][44].