“反内卷”消息刺激，盘面大幅升水

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Bearish / Polysilicon: Bearish [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - The resumption rhythm of large factories in Xinjiang still affects the fundamental changes of industrial silicon. Short - term industrial silicon may operate between 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to range - trading opportunities. For polysilicon, although the spot dense material quotation has risen to 55 yuan/kg, the actual transaction price is likely to be concentrated between 50 - 52 yuan/kg. After the sharp rise in the futures market stimulated by the "anti - involution" news, the futures have a large premium over the spot, which may stimulate the hedging willingness of silicon material enterprises again. The upward space of polysilicon is limited, while the downward space is opened. Short - term attention should be paid to the callback opportunity, and the 11 - 12 reverse arbitrage opportunity can be considered at around - 2000 yuan/ton [4][18] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial silicon/polysilicon industry chain prices - This week, the Si2511 contract of industrial silicon increased by 430 yuan/ton to 8820 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price of East China oxygen - passing 553 increased by 50 yuan/ton to 9100 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 increased by 50 yuan/ton to 8500 yuan/ton. The PS2511 contract of polysilicon increased by 7180 yuan/ton to 56735 yuan/ton. The transaction price of N - type re -投料 increased by 1100 yuan/ton to 49000 yuan/ton [9] 3.2 "Anti - involution" news stimulates significant premium in the futures market - Industrial silicon: The main futures contract of industrial silicon fluctuated downward this week. The number of open furnaces in Xinjiang, Ningxia, and Northeast decreased by 3, 1, and 1 respectively. The resumption volume of large factories in Xinjiang was less than expected, and the southern start - up was basically stable. Some silicon factories may start to reduce production during the dry season in late October. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory decreased by 0.40 million tons, and the sample factory inventory decreased by 0.27 million tons. Downstream maintained rigid demand procurement without stockpiling. If the start - up of large factories in Xinjiang remains unchanged, industrial silicon may accumulate about 30,000 tons of inventory from September to October and may reduce inventory by about 100,000 tons during the dry season from November to December. If large factories in Xinjiang resume full production, it may be difficult to reduce inventory during the dry season [11] - Organic silicon: The price of organic silicon decreased slightly this week. Some devices were shut down or under maintenance, and the weekly start - up rate changed little. The overall start - up rate of enterprises was 73.47%, the weekly output was 48,600 tons, an increase of 1.04%, and the inventory was 48,400 tons, a decrease of 1.83%. New orders increased slightly, and the market activity increased slightly. It is expected that the price of organic silicon will fluctuate at a low level [11][12] - Polysilicon: The main futures contract of polysilicon rose significantly this week. Polysilicon production and sales restrictions officially started in September, and the production schedule in September is still around 128,000 tons. Attention should be paid to whether the production will further decline to the quota level. As of September 4, the factory inventory of polysilicon enterprises was 211,000 tons, mainly concentrated in two first - tier enterprises. Silicon wafer enterprises' polysilicon raw material inventory reached 200,000 tons. Silicon material enterprises continued to raise prices, but downstream enterprises were resistant to high - priced silicon materials. It is expected that the transaction price of dense material in September will be concentrated between 50 - 52 yuan/kg [13] - Silicon wafers: The quotation of silicon wafers was further raised this week. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12R/G12 silicon wafers remained at 1.25/1.40/1.60 yuan/piece, but the quotations of M10/G12 were further raised to 1.30/1.65 yuan/piece. As of September 4, the silicon wafer factory inventory was 16.85GW, and the production schedule in September was 57.5GW. It is expected that silicon wafers will stabilize at the new quotation in the short term [14] - Battery cells: The price of battery cells further increased this week. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12 battery cells rose to 0.3/0.295 yuan/watt, while that of G12R remained at 0.285 yuan/watt. As of September 1, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 7.81GW, and the production schedule in September was 60GW. The price increase of silicon wafers put pressure on battery cells. It is expected that the price of battery cells will remain stable in the short term [15] - Components: The price of components remained basically stable this week. Centralized components mainly executed previous orders, and distributed projects executed more new orders. The upstream price increase was not smoothly transmitted to the terminal. It is expected that the component price will fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to whether there are demand - side policy introductions [16][17] 3.3 Investment advice - Industrial silicon: Pay attention to the follow - up progress of large factories' resumption in Xinjiang. Short - term industrial silicon may operate between 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton, and pay attention to range - trading opportunities [18] - Polysilicon: The actual transaction price of dense material is likely to be concentrated between 50 - 52 yuan/kg. After the sharp rise in the futures market, the futures have a large premium over the spot, which may stimulate the hedging willingness of silicon material enterprises. The upward space of polysilicon is limited, and the downward space is opened. Short - term attention should be paid to the callback opportunity, and the 11 - 12 reverse arbitrage opportunity can be considered at around - 2000 yuan/ton [4][18] 3.4 Hot news sorting - China Anneng's component purchase project change: The original 0.66 yuan/W component price limit was invalid. The tender scale was changed from 2GW to 200MW, and the tender model was changed. The new tender does not set a price limit [19] - Two - department policy: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation jointly issued a plan to govern the low - price competition of photovoltaic products according to law, strengthen the monitoring and early warning of key industries, and guide the orderly layout of the photovoltaic and lithium - battery industries [19] 3.5 Industrial chain high - frequency data tracking - Industrial silicon: It includes data such as the spot price of oxygen - passing 553 and 99 silicon, weekly output in different regions, and social and factory inventories [21][24][28] - Organic silicon: It includes data such as the spot price of DMC, weekly profit, factory inventory, and weekly output [31][32] - Polysilicon: It includes data such as the spot price, weekly gross profit, factory inventory, and enterprise weekly output [36][37] - Silicon wafers: It includes data such as the spot price, average net profit, factory inventory, and enterprise weekly output [38][40][43] - Battery cells: It includes data such as the spot price, average net profit, export factory inventory, and enterprise monthly output [44][46][50] - Components: It includes data such as the spot price, average net profit, factory inventory, and enterprise monthly output [53][58][60]