全球资产配置每周聚焦（20250829-20250905）：美国就业数据显示衰退概率提升，黄金领涨全球资产-20250907

Economic Indicators - The US unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, marking three consecutive months of increases[3] - Non-farm payrolls added only 22,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 75,000[3] - The probability of a US recession has increased, with the Federal Reserve's rate cut probability for September now at 100%[3] Market Performance - COMEX gold prices surged by 3.66% this week, leading global asset performance[3] - The 10-year US Treasury yield fell by 13 basis points to 4.10%[3] - The Chinese stock market showed resilience, with the ChiNext index rising by 2.7%[3] Fund Flows - Domestic capital inflow into the Chinese stock market reached $3.031 billion, while foreign capital outflow was $1.019 billion[3] - Global funds saw significant inflows into developed market equities, with US equities receiving $7.11 billion[3] Valuation Metrics - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the Shanghai Composite Index has risen to the 42nd percentile historically[3] - The S&P 500's risk-adjusted return percentile increased from 44% to 58%[3] Risk Sentiment - The options market indicates a belief in a solid market bottom for the CSI 300, with a decrease in put-call ratios suggesting improved sentiment[3] - The implied volatility for the CSI 300 has shown a consistent pattern, indicating limited downside risk but cautious optimism for upward movement[3]