Orient Securities·2025-09-07 13:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The main driver for the recent rise in gold prices is the increased certainty of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, alongside rising risks [8][13] - The steel industry is expected to see enhanced mid-term price support due to interest rate cut expectations and policy initiatives [17] Summary by Sections Gold Sector - Companies with self-owned gold mines are likely to see greater profit elasticity during rising gold prices, ensuring sustained performance growth. Recommended stocks include Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988, Buy) and Zhuhai Group (600961, Buy) [3] - The recent gold price increase is attributed to the shift in dominant investors to U.S. domestic institutions, with a focus on economic recession risks, stock market volatility, and credit risks associated with the dollar [8][14][15] Steel Sector - Demand for steel is under pressure during the off-season, with a need to validate expectations for the peak season [17] - Overall inventory levels for both social and steel mill stocks have risen, indicating a need for structural improvement in demand [23] - Short-term steel prices are under downward pressure, but policy and demand improvements are expected to support a mid-term recovery [38] New Energy Metals - The production of lithium carbonate in July 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 28.33%, indicating strong supply dynamics [42] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with July 2025 production and sales showing year-on-year growth of 22.53% and 19.30%, respectively [46] - Prices for lithium, cobalt, and nickel are showing divergence, with lithium carbonate prices decreasing by 4.21% week-on-week [51]