利率策略周报（2025-09-07）：长债重定价结束了么-20250907

Group 1 - The report indicates that the 10-year government bond yield slightly declined to 1.83% as of September 5, down about 1 basis point from August 29, influenced by market concerns regarding the "anti-involution" policy and banks adjusting their balance sheets at the end of the quarter [1][2] - The bond market is currently in a weak oscillating environment, with a notable "see-saw" effect between stocks and bonds driven by rising inflation expectations. If the stock market continues to strengthen, the 10-year government bond yield is likely to undergo further repricing [2][3] - The investment strategy in the bond market should focus on defensive tactics, employing a barbell strategy. Investors are advised to consider short-term credit bonds with moderate duration due to the volatility in long-term rates [3] Group 2 - The report highlights that the domestic bond market is showing stronger credit performance compared to interest rates, with longer maturities outperforming shorter ones. Specifically, 5Y and 30Y government bonds have shown relatively strong performance [8] - The report notes that the high-frequency economic activity index in China is currently at 1.04, indicating a seasonal decline, while the operating rates of various industries such as steel and automotive are showing mixed trends [18][36] - The report provides insights into the monetary and liquidity conditions, indicating that the central bank implemented a net withdrawal of 1,204.7 billion yuan through open market operations from September 1 to September 5, reflecting a stable overall funding environment [61]