非电煤和电煤接力换棒，秋季煤炭布局稳扎稳打

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The transition from thermal coal to non-thermal coal is expected to support coal prices, with a stable layout in the coal sector [12] - The current dynamics in the coal market indicate that both thermal coal and coking coal prices have reached a turning point, suggesting potential price recovery [12] - The report highlights that the demand for non-thermal coal, particularly from the coal chemical sector, is anticipated to be a key driver for future price increases [4][12] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal prices are expected to rebound to long-term contract prices, currently above the second target price of around 700 CNY per ton [4][12] - The forecast for thermal coal prices suggests a potential rise to 750 CNY per ton, which is seen as a profit-sharing point for coal and power generation companies [4][12] - Coking coal prices are more influenced by supply and demand fundamentals, with target prices set at 1608 CNY, 1680 CNY, 1800 CNY, and 2064 CNY corresponding to thermal coal price targets [4][12] Investment Recommendations - The report identifies four main investment lines in the coal sector: 1. Cycle logic: Companies like Jinko Coal and Yanzhou Coal Mining 2. Dividend logic: China Shenhua and China Coal Energy 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity: Shenhua Holdings and Electric Power Investment 4. Growth logic: New Energy and Guanghui Energy [5][13] Key Market Indicators - The coal index increased by 0.31%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.12 percentage points [7][9] - The average PE ratio for the coal sector is 13.2, and the PB ratio is 1.23, ranking low among all A-share industries [27][32] - As of September 5, 2025, the price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal is 679 CNY per ton, reflecting a slight decrease of 1.59% [19][31] Coking Coal Market - The price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port is currently 1540 CNY per ton, down from 1610 CNY [20][22] - The report notes a significant rebound in coking coal futures prices, which have increased by 61.2% since June [4][12] Non-Thermal Coal Sector - The methanol operating rate is currently at 83.72%, indicating a slight increase, while the urea operating rate has decreased significantly [11][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of non-thermal coal demand, particularly from the coal chemical industry, as a stabilizing factor for coal prices [4][12]